RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Rig counts continue to drop, Shale growth stallsYes exactly Migraine...
YTD over 90% of the gain in the S&P500 can be attributed to 7 mega cap tech companies like AAPL. The rest of the names have barely moved upward and many have actually gone down so the index is giving people a false sense as to what is actually happening. This dichotomy is fueled by the AI craze much like what happened in the tech boom of 1999/2000 and we know how that worked out
Interesting that you mentioned that you are having the same feelings as you did before previous market crashes. I was going to say the same thing in my earlier post. As the great sage Yogi Berra once said "It's deja vu all over again". I recall being at a company meeting in mid February 2008 and talked about the high level leverage in the US banking system and the outlandish level of mortgage refinancing and said that I had been getting my clients out of the market and sitting on cash and fixed income since the summer of 2007. I was, for all intents and purposes, laughed out of the room by my colleagues who said I was worrying for nothing. A year later the market was down about 50% and many of my client portfolios were actually up in value due to the capital appreciation of their bond holdings and interest income. Even those clients who had a high risk tolerance were not down anywhere near 50%.
I have exactly the same feelings today as I had back then when I issued my warning to my colleagues.
Will I be right again?
Time will tell for sure but as I said in earlier posts when the market is in the Excessive Greed category, it is usually a good time to reduce your asset allocation to equities.