RE:RE:A Quick Summary on Global EnergyThe fact is that most in the west seem to think that globally we will be moving away from fossil fuels and transitioning to renewable energy instead.
In reality, powerful new energy demand in non OECD far exceeds the additional increased use of renewables.
This leaves a shortfall, where countries turn to every other source of energy instead. In many areas of this increasing demand from non western countries, they lack the distribution infrastructure and proximity to gas, and it must be imported as costly LNG, transported to power generators, and even bottled to consumers.
When it comes to energy security and demand, people will use whatever they can as a substitute for one that is lacking, be it solar, wind, hydro, coal, charcoal, nat gas, LNG, diesel, gasoline, wood, and even cow dung. I have even seen used clothes burned for cooking as it can be bought cheaper per kg than other fuel sources.
Oil is by far the easiest go to energy source. It is easy to ship, transport, store, burn, and use. The energy density is highest, and it can be brought to consumers wherever there is a road. It requires near zero new infrastructure in comparison to other energy forms, as end users own and maintain their own generators, water pumps, tractors, vehicles and engines.
Even in the not so backwards Saudi Arabia and Middle East, they still use about 1 million bbls/day of oil just for additional electrical generation for cooling every scorching summer.
More things are making our lives more dependent on electricity for energy needs. At the same time, the capacity of the electrical grid is often pushed to maximum, under ever increasing demand. They will break and fail with brown outs and black outs, and the market for back up systems for businesses and private users will become critical to have, whereas before it was a matter of simple inconvenience.
Here in Thailand, my power fails on the average once each day. Sometimes for a minute, sometimes for half a day.
For my new villa, all the pool pumps, lighting and air cons will have a power consumption many times greater than before. I will have a lot of solar, but it was shocking to learn that battery backup is so many times more costly than a gasoline generator.
If I only back up critical parts of my villa for a few hours, limited pool pumps and limited air cons, I would need about 3 Tesla powerwalls, at about $30,000 each. In comparison, I could buy 90 gasoline generators, and give one to every house the entire village. Even that is so much of an excess luxury here, few locals could even afford that themselves.
The main takeaway is that increased energy demand is like a rising tide that lifts all boats. Some are electric, some are gasoline, and some are leaky canoes.
Experienced wrote: Not sure how the fact that renewables not keeping pace with energy demand is helping oil since oil is used very little at least in the developed world for the production of electricity. Not enough renewable capacity growth would help natural gas producers for sure.