Oil in place calculations… Wei is a winner! Lots of variables, no doubt, that will be put into p10-50-90 stochastic models, along with deterministic low-reference-high side models, in the coming weeks/months by various companies looking at northern Corentyne as part of future JV/buyout discussions.
Let's assume following variables for the following Wei-1 discovery in the Santonian. Yes, I am assuming oil discovery, and yes I'm making some guesses. Joys of this "game" as an outsider.
Acres: let's go low side and say 3000 acres for actual size of the net pay sands within the Santonian Channel.
Porosity: let's go with 15% (based both on Kawa and
other industry reports in the basin)
Thickness: 210 ft (as per news release).
Oil Saturation: let's go with 70% (same as above: news release and basin reports).
Bo: let's go with 1.2
Crunching these numbers, you can get a basic volume of ~427 million barrels in place. Assuming a recovery factor of roughly 25%, that gives you about ~106 million barrels.
106 million barrels potential recovery... in my opinion, that's fantastic!
Now let's throw in Kawa, overburden internals in Wei and additional discoveries between Wei and Kawa (central complex) and this 106 million barrels could easily jump to well above 200 million (if not more).
If appraised properly, Wei has the potential to be a stand alone development. As such, Kawa and other discoveries could easily be tied into Wei central complex. Or if opportunities present themselves, tie back production into one of the fields discovered by either Exxon or Apache.
Either way, some company will want this opportunity in northern Corentyne in their portfolio. Is it perfect... no. Is it still filed with future uncertainty and risk... yes. However, discovery of conventional (not heavy or unconventional) oil fields that have recovery potential greater than 100 million barrels (and likely a low side calculation on my part) is rare today.
Everyone knows I am not a fan of CGX/Frontera management. But end of day, these guys have found themselves a pretty nice oil discovery. Everyone knows a deal needs to be done here. The opportunity is here to do something that rewards all shareholders... now let's see it happen!