New Canaccord report with cancer estimatesCanaccord has transferred coverage to a more apprpriate analyst as NASH is no longer a realistic proposition for THTX. The new analyst has come out with a pretty good 14 page report and suggests that both TNBC and ovarian cancer represent $1.2 billion in peak revenue potential for THTX (a total of $2.4 billion). He currently suggests there is a 15% chance of success for THTX in these two cancers and will await the restarted trials results before upping those odds. Still, the tenor of the report is that he thinks THTX has a good shot at it. He left the price target at $2 and the rating at Hold pending the results of the restarted trial. He thinks Egrifta and Trogarzo can continue to produce reasonable sales growth.
If TH-1902 does produce good results (he is looking for those in early 2024) he will obviously up his odds of success and raise the price target considerably. But we will have to wait a bit for that still.
There has still not been a Jones Research report since the lastest info was shared by the company. The analyst asked questions on the last conference call, so he is still following the stock. I wonder iof we are going to get a comprehensive report from him indicating optimism on TH-1902 and leading to a Jones led small share offering ($20 million)? Just another wild speculation on my part and I am only wildly speculating because I think it is odd we have not seen a report from Jones and because THTX could well want to bolster their cash before TH-1902 produces any results in case those results are poor. THTX will need to make payments of about $30 million in the year starting 8/24 to Marathon as principal payments start then on their now $60 million loan. While THTX would quickly be generating a lot of cash if they were no longer pursuing TH-1902, it might take quite a while too get to the $30 million mark of free cash flow. So, they might want to be prepared for that via an interim offering. If TH-1902 is successful, then cash will not be an issue as they will have partnership opportunities as well as the ability to sell stock at much higher prices.