RE:Even the best minds can lose sight of the forestNo, the battery storage math doesn't work. Have you even tried?
My math here says that it will take approx 4 Tesla powerwalls to give me about 50kwh of battery power to run my house for a precious few hours, when the sun is gone, as long as I don't use air cons, any pool pumps, or fridges, or outside lights. I would need many times that storage amount to live normally. The main purpose of this is for me is for power outages, as there is no way a Tesla Powerwall would be affordable for the whole electrical load.
So I just got a quote from a Tesla Powerwall dealer here for about $25000 CDN each per unit, on a super sale. That is $100,000 CAD total for 4 units, plus 7% taxes.
I can save more if I go with a cheap Chinese battery system, but who knows how long it will last, and there is no warranty from China. These would need to be installed in a separate building due to the danger of the explosive Chinese battery fires we all have seen on the internet. Too risky for me to be inside my home.
I plan to have a 40 KW solar system total on my roof tiles, of about 70 panels 600W each, with inverters, costing about $70,000 CAD, for direct use of the power as it is produced.
So for the additional $107,000 that I would have to spend on a battery system to store just over an hour of the solar power I can produce on peak, I think I can also arrange to fire up a gasoline powered Ferarri running on a treadmill generator at night, and also be able to drive it during the day. Or simply for an easy few grand, run my own gasoline generator that kicks in when needed. Grid power here is cheap, costing about $0.20 CAD per KWH after the recent hikes.
I'm interested to learn details of your home solar battery storage cost comparison, and how this offers such irrefutable cost savings and payback of investment.
As far as Russia and Saudi temporary cuts, they are done to put a floor under the oil price as the paper market is focused on recessionary fears, and positioning has never been more out of touch with the supply demand reality. Saudis are not stupid, and they see what is coming that the market choses to ignore.
In fact, the Saudis also have raised their OSPs across the globe to allow buyers to sop up all the extra oil floating around from others, which will tighten inventories and floating storage. Saudi prices to the US are now $9 above Brent.
These cuts have just barely started, and have yet to materialize in the market. The market needs to see concrete evidence of Russian cuts, hence the recent Russian wording 'Export cut' which is easy for all to see and measure, rather that 'Production cut' which is easy to hide. Also it needs to see drops in inventories in both products and crude.
Perhaps it has already started to turn as oil is up $5 on Friday hitting $73 from the previous lows.
What you say about Suncor goes for many producers in the pre-Covid meltdown era. Yet these same companies now have far less debt, far more cash flow, they are buying back shares, and will pay way more dividends going forward. They are a screaming buy compared to before, and that is because so many analysts and folks are brainwashed with energy transition, and just plain have it wrong.
Digging into the global data, there is pro and cons, but in the end, I'll take this contrarian bullish oil position all day long.
Energy sector earnings have blown away SP500 earnings by nearly a factor of 3. Can't find the chart at this hour.
Get a few horses in the race, and let it play out.
4:30AM. Off to bed...
Obscure1 wrote: MC:
I'm pretty sure you are spending too much time focusing on the trees
The entire world (other than OPEC+ and myopic oil industry investors) wants what solar/battery storage is promising.
The math is irrefutable as the cost saving of transforming to solar/battery storage is staggering.
The lack of reliablily of renewables prevented the proliferation of renewables for a generation. With the advent of a drastic reduction in the cost of battery storage (down 85% in the last ten years and expected to drop by another 50% in the next 5 years) has made oil obsolete as a business model.
The oil industry initially claimed that there were not enough raw materials for batteries. That falsehood has been completely debunked.
Then the oil industry claimed that transmission line loss leakage and the cost of building transmission lines from wind and solar locations to areas of need would be prohibitive. The ability to have dispatchable solar (ie built anywhere) debunked that arguement as today's photovoltaic panels don't require direct sunlight to work. Plenty of energy gets through the clouds to make solar efficient.
Any country in the world can build a reliable new solar/battery storage infrastructure that only takes up 1% of available unoccupied land.
Energy experts (not self-serving organizations like the IEA who have been paid off) realize that the transition to renewable/storage is inevitable due to economics, not environmental pressure.
If you are reading this and don't believe me, ask yourself:
1) why countries all over the world (even Saudi Arabia) racing towards a renewables/battery storage solution...btw, China is leading the world in the transition to renewable/battery storage
2) why are Russia and Saudi Arabia slashing oil production?
3) why are the production cutbacks by Russia and Saudi Arabia not driving oil prices higher like they did in the past?
When an investor buys a stock or hires a financial advisore (this includes ETF's), the investor gets invested in the story or the advisor for whatever reason(s) he/she chose. The "handing over" of responsibility of looking after your own money to somebody who is perceived to know more about financial matters than you do typically relieves stress.
What are the advisors doing with the funds that they administer under their care? NOT investing in in SU.
On July 1, 2018 Brent was trading at $72 while Suncor was trading at $54.78. On Friday, oil was trading pretty much at the same price as it was 5 years ago while SU closed at $38.82 yesterday.
SU is currently trading almost 30% lower than it was 5 years ago when oil was at the same price as it is now. The DOW is up 900 points over the same period.
You might want to ask yourself why you are invested in SU, or you can continue to believe in whatever it is that you believe in despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary