RE:RE:SNC turnaround is clearly evident now.. Thank you for the nice compliments ol griz.
My guess is we will be in a very tight range bound mode for the next 2 qtrs at least until eoy where the 2 Ontario projects are considered "substantially completed" in the construction world. Unfortunately those results will be part of the 4'th qtr ER which won't be published until around mid March 2024. The 4'th qtr ER gets included with the full year 2022 ER and is the longer wait until it gets published- too bad
But it just means we only have to wait about 2 months after that for the 1'st qtr 2024 ER(published around mid May 2024).
I don't have a crystal ball and cannot put a share price that far ahead, however assuming there are no surprises to come with the completion of the 3 remaining LSTK projects, we will attract a lot of attention and money that is sitting on the fence right now earmarked for investment into SNC. That money wants to see 100 percent confirmation that the LSTK contracts are indeed finished and no further risk. It just means they may be buying at a higher share price. That's the gamble one takes.
You either invest early after the initial scandal first surfaced about 4 years ago realizing that was a one time event that would eventually clear itself up and any astute investor who was familiar with SNC's 100 plus year history(like I am) would redeem itself and move on after this was cleared up. I personally knew they would clean themselves up but no where did I expect it would take 4 years. Nope. It was a lot worse than I expected. Shame on previous mgmt.
Where do I personally think the share price to go? Based on todays information we have inclusive of the huge contracts they continue to win and a focus on clean energy and a need for their assets and expertise, I think this stock is $50 by end of 2024. The biggest headwind is the LSTK contracts which is a overhang on the current $35 sp. Those are all substantially completed by end of 2024 so there should be no further need for defensive analysis from any of the analysts reports.
There will always be time to get back in Ol Griz. Just keep your eyes open on the developments of the company and just "nibble in" slowly here and there on any dips in price which we get regularly. Dollar cost average is a prudent strategy since no one ever buys at rock bottom. But you won't look foolish either by buying your full position at top dollar either. Even at todays $35 sp, anyone looking out 1 to 3 years out, you are looking at a sp of $50 to $75 imo conservatively speaking so who cares if one buys with the intention to hold it for 3 plus years? This one is solid hold for me based on the latest ER and where I see the future of SNC on a global scale. I am confident. The worst is over and it's best days are coming. If SNC hits $50 plus and no buyout happens before end of 2024, then I doubt SNC will ever get bought out at that time. Too late imo. The buyer will be forced to pay a much higher premium considering the risks in owning the stock are completely gone end of 2024. That's why I had forecast if there was a buyout coming, it would happen by eoy 2023. Either way I will come out a winner here. My avg price is $25.50
Good luck
Ron
Ron