RE:RE:Nice buy on close !Hi Sooner, I hear that mantra alot regarding M&A activity: if the bid is too low it will get bid higher.
This is akin to assuming a buyer today would've been a buyer yesterday or the previous week. That is not always the case and is not a safe assumption.
A bidding war today wouldn't necessarily equate into a bidding war at a previous point in time. I don't want the best price that can be achieved today. I want the best price that can be achieved regardless of what (reasonable) point in the future it may occur within.
When I say resonable, I mean within a 5 year time frame for as any astute investor knows, if you can't afford to park your money in an investment for 5 years then you are better off putting your money in a CD at the bank. I say 5 years at this current juncture since the stars are slowly starting to align. No way would I have expected a 5 year timeframe at the infancy of the company.
If you think about it, would it benefit Paul to take the stance of unloading at the best price possible in as quick a fashion as possible? Do you think RIO/NEM or any other suitor would give a fair price if they saw Paul attempting to part with Casino in a fire sale? No, we'd get lowballed beyond. Why would a suitor offer a fair price if the seller has no leverage?!
Sorry for those who want, need, hope for, wish or pray for a speedy sale. It's not going to happen this year. The best thing that could happen in the next 6 months is that NEM is extended a strategic buy-in that helps foster that competitive tension. The worst thing that could happen is that RIO/NEM form a joint venture and collectively pursue mining Casino, then everybody gets screwed out of profits (both buyers and sellers).