Joining the Pain TrainWell I've been eyeing this one for months, and couldn't resist taking a stake now with this latest disconnect between the share price and oil price. I like SU primarily for its refinery and retail operations, both of which should print lots of cash for many years to come and give some stability to the stock price regardless of the prevailing oil price. I also think capital expenditures for fossil fuel production will be pressured going forward due to the energy transition, which could support the oil price and existing operations with substantial infrastructure already in place.
I think the dividend is well covered and there looks to be plenty of FCF to buy back lots of shares at the current price. The share count already looks to be down ~300M or so since 2018.
My one year price target is $50, which with dividends would make for a return north of 30%.