RE:Buying the shortsI bought some NVA shares myself this morning, and know Q2 will be good but it going to be dripping in Cash in Q3. Likely with Q3 being over 80,000 boe/day.
I looked at the bond and they this is what is see.
| Offer Qty | 866,000 |
| Currently Available | 866,000 |
| Offer Fut Qty | 0 |
| Offer Min Qty | 5,000 |
| Offer Multiple | 1,000 |
| Offer Max Size | 9,999 |
| Ask Price | 103.105 |
| Ask Yield | 6.71910 |
| Offer MMY Mat | 6.71910 |
| Ask Yield | 6.71910 |
| Offer SAY | 6.21007 |
| Offer YTW | 6.21007 |
| Offer MMY | 6.21007 |
| Offer CY | 7.63784 |
| Offer AY | 6.30648 |
So they really can't get cheaper financing then what the bonds are currently trading at so if they take them out it will be only to clean up the balance sheet because they can't buy anymore with their NCIB. They are already well below their debt threshold.
The stock actually trades pretty thin with Nine Points, GMP, and Paramount ownership. The float is just not that big and may scare some funds away.
The next move for the stock is a take out by POU in my opinion and with 80,000+ boe production i think the time is now. The bond holders likely want to be taken out because the bonds are not really trading at a premium. The NVA shareholders may want POU shares is my guess as it will be a highly accretive transaction for both companies.
I expect a deal in Q3, and if i were POU i would find a place for Jonathan.
IMHO