RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:STUNNING: TMX Requires 4.4 Million Barrels Of LINEFILLShipping on smaller tankers is really not such a big deal as it is made out to be. Recently, until a few months ago on November of 2022, Aframax tanker rates were less than VLCCs.
Shipping rates change a lot, and it is hard to make valid long term predictions about the future shipping cost differences due to the volatility of the shipping market, and changing regulation.
The only thing missing is choice, if Aframax tankers will be the size limitation put in place.
I think a far greater concern would be the higher than expected pipeline tolls due to all the anthills, frogs, moss, and bird nests encountered. How did we ever manage to build a coast to coast railroad across the Rockies over a century ago? Lucky they didn't have those kind of ants back then.
https://fearnpulse.com/fearnleys-weekly-report 
Experienced wrote: Well it will be interesting to see how this works out.
From what I have read, the tankers being allowed at the BC port are too small to make it economic for western oil producers to ship to Asia and get the brent price.
The combination of the high tolls due to the cost overruns on TMX combined with the sea shipping costs will have to be compared to the current discount off WTI for WCS and other grades of oil. We will see how that math works out. Hopefully TMX is at least the same or better than the current discount. If it isn't then it will just underline how badly the whole thing was managed by the Trudeau Government and paid for by taxpayers.
Perhaps some of the oil experts here have already run the numbers.