RE:RE:RE:No buybacks in June.cpeczek wrote: Totally valid possibility. We don't have any idea and are just speculating until we get a filing.
I looked and they actually stopped as of May 10. The May buybacks were all done in that first week and a half before they abruptly stopped. From looking at filings they have not missed a month since 2017
1. Bearish possibility: management no longer sees value in buying back shares vs. paying down debt. This would be a bad sign.
Possible evidence against this: they were buying back shares in April and May above $9. Shares were bought back at much higher intervals before the pandemic and rates are not expected to raise much more in the short term, so the timing seems a bit odd.
2. Second bearish possibility: the management is selling into the market and hasn't filed yet. They would need to stop the NCIB to sell into the market.
I don't really have any direct evidence against this one.
Good/neutral possibilities:
3. Preparing for a dividend raise. As this company has historically paid a high payout, they may want to return back to this and may be holding capital for the time being while they agree on a new dividend rate.
Possible evidence against: GH has not fully recovered from pre-pandemic yet (although close). The buybacks continued with a high dividend rate previously (although they likely weren't paying as much in debt costs so maybe this was involved)
4. Wild scenario: When companies are being acquired or making a big purchase they might stop buybacks to preserve capital. I saw this with a previous company that I held that was acquired. They suddenly stopped buybacks for 2 months before being announced to be bought out.
Evidence against: there isn't even any evidence for this. Its just wild speculation on my part.
5. The completely possible explanation that I can't dispute: whoever was responsible for the buybacks can't for some reason and nobody else knows how to do it and report it properly.
Likely they are building their capital reserve or paying off debt for some reason. I guess we will wait and see.
Really good point.
AGM was May 9th.
Maybe Kasking told the gang it's time to prepare for a Dividend increase.
Maybe they are following his suggestion!