Another ecozealot post :)Anyone that thinks I'm an ecozealot is delusionsal. I invest for profit, not out of social conscience. I made seven figures on hydrocarbon transporter ENB and another on SU before trasitioning away from oil..
The transition out of oil for me happened when I watched my SU shares drop from $54 to $44. I kept telling myself that the street was wrong and that they would come back when they realized that the eco story was a scam. Then I found Tony Seba's work and realized that the street was voting its money on economics, not social conscience.
The economics of the future renewable/battery storage enery solution is unassailable.
The political mumbo jumbo is not particularly relevant from a scientific perspective, but those folks we keep electing are doing a fine job of forcing the world to make the correct economic decision by default.
Here is the latest from Jolly Ol' London:
"London's ULEZ (Ultra Low Emissions Zone) expansion, is going into effect at the end of August 2023.
Most ICE vehicles older than 16 years will need to pay £12.50 PER DAY when driving within the zone. Cameras are set up to record license plates, and you receive a bill after you drive.
The expanded zone is massive, roughly 50km across and 40km top to bottom, with 4M people living within it."
A couple of things come to mind when I read the above:
1) The fee equates to more than Cdn$5,000 per year if you drive 6 days per week
2) The qualifying age of the vehicles is 16 years which eliminates a lot of cars
3) When will the number drop to ten years and then five years
4) When will the entire country adopt the policy and then when will all of Europe etc
My point is that the direction that the politicos are taking is going to keep the pressure on for the transition.
It looks like Elon is going to be building another low cost ( US$24,000 ) vehicle plant in India to follow the first one in Mexico. I suspect that each plant will ramp up production over time to 3 million cars each. As the volumes rise, the costs will continue to drop and I expect we will see sub $20,000 Tesla vehicles this decade.
Impossible??? Not at all as you can currently buy decent EV's in China and India for under US$10,000. Tesla's next gen cars which will be hitting the market next year will be smaller than SUV's but the quality and economics will make 90% of ICE vehicles on thr road obsolete.
I guarantee you that any arguements made about "range anxiety" or "cold" or anything else you can come up with can be met with logical answers backed by bona fide statistics. Of course there will always be exceptions as nothing is ever 100% but driving an exception is going to get more and more expensive over time. I know that won't change minds that refuse to see what is happening before their eyes so I won't bother.