RE:Does the future of oil lay in the hands of India
Obscure1 wrote: matt2018:
Excellent post. Informative. Thoughtful. Balanced. That is the type of post that keeps investors like me coming back. Your thoughts on the BTE acquistion in particular jumped out at me.
Oil is a tough one to figure out these days:
* has Europe repositioned itself in time for winter?
* can MBS keep oil at $80 which really means will the USA stick its nose into oil again?
* is China's recovery real or are there more speed bumps?
* no idea what to make of Russia issues as the Ukraine situation seems endless
* will the USA and BRICS use a renewables vs. oil strategy as a power play for the ROW
In the medium term (the next 5 years), I expect that the pathway for oil will be determined by how fast and how broad the the world transitions to renewables. While the pathway should be well planned and smooth, the variables are complicated. Politics and egos often (always???) seem to get in the way of logic.
It feels like America and Europe are on a one-way highway towards a sustainable renewables futue.
China continues to lead the world in the transition to renewables despite confusing headlines about the use of coal based peaker plants to satisfy immediate needs. China has more to gain from a transition to renewables in the medium term than any country on earth other than India.
IMO, India is the next big play. It wasn't too long ago that India an China were almost on par when it came to GDP and other economic measures. India moved slowly while China's economy exploded to the upside. I'm not a fan of communism but China certainly kicked the crapp out of India on that one.
From a geopolitical perspective, India is incredibly interesting. India has cozied up to Russia over discounted oil, but I think that relationship is short term in nature as India has never hidden the fact that its primary interest is India.
Due to my interest in Tesla, I have been tracking Modi's (Prime Minister of India) and his Minister's actions and wording about India's next move when it comes to EV's. I think India's EV decison has much deeper implications than which brand of cars will be built in India. India's recent rejection of BYD's proposal to JV with a local company in India to build an EV plant not so quietly infers that India doesn't trust China. As usual, the brain-dead media hasn't put any thought into what that means. I think that Modi's trip to the US and the anticipation of Tesla doing big things in India along with the timing of the BYD rejection have huge implicatons. Perhaps Elon's endorsement of Modi's actions and agenda are more than just political rhertoric. I belive that if India commits to Tesla, it will be for a lot more than just cars as the future of India's power grid is at stake.
What does any of this have to do with Suncor? Everything! That is why Matt2018's comment about the danger of oil acquistions struck such a note with me as SU has a singular objective.
As I have mentioned many times, I don't pretend to know much about oil. I keep posting anyway because I think the future of Suncor lays in the hands of people that don't care whether Suncor survives or not. But what do I know???
EU lucked out with a warm winter, will that happen again? who know
Germany is de-industrializing because they don't have enough energy. Will germany, once a manufacturing powerhouse, go back to cheap russian energy or will germany slowly wither away. Germany ain't getting much out of the ukraine-russia war.
it's confusing because china need fossil fuel to power its renewable energy dominancy, it goes to show the transition to renewables require fossil fuel.
India had learned their lesson about china, they banned all chinese brand phones and apps already. Of course they won't sign up with BYD for the same reason. Yes, india much prefer tesla presence in india but elon musk know india has infrastructure problem, weak legal system, and a piece of tesla in JV which elon doesn't like. Modi want to use tesla as a showcase piece that india is on par with china. Will see how much elon musk and modi would composmise to reach a deal.
I fear more about canadian gov'ts have on SU than from the world transitioning to renewables. Our gov't is so dead set against the west such that they're willing to sacrifice canada prosperity to just keep power in the east and obeying WEF agenda.