Just a thought The discussions about book value are interesting but it's tough to put a price on a potential takeout.
We don't know who might be bidding or how motivated they might be. And that affects price.
A potential buyer might see value beyond what's stated on the balance sheet. An acquirer may have ideas about ways to ramp up profitablity.
And let's say financial instituition X really wants to expand into retail banking. This could be a rare and perhaps once in a lifetime opportunity to buy a book of business. They might pay extra for that reason.
Or perhaps financial institution Y wants to prevent a competitor from gaining market share in Quebec and will move aggessively to defend its turf. That could drive the price higher.
Here's another thought. What if some CEO is in the mood to make an acquistion to shake up his company or take it in a new direction?
And then ... it is always possible that a bidding war might develop.
We think, based on reporting, that someone made a bid to get this started. We don't know who or why or how many others might jump in to buy the bank or prevent a competitor from getting it.
Plus ... there is another side to this coin. We don't know how eager LB is to make a deal. If it's true that they didn't start the auction ... then it is entirely possible that it will take a substantial bid to win board approval. And they may be telling bidders to step up or step back.
The availalble numbers are helpful. But not sufficient to understand what's going on.
We need more information.
One last thing. My previous comment on Stephen Takacsy was incomplete.
Yes, he made this a rare short term pick on BNN. That caught attention, as someone else has noted.
As I said before, he was right about Velan, another Montreal based company, being taken over.
Here's what I neglected to add.
He also signalled very clearly that the major shareholders of Logistec would look for a way to unlock value. Not long after he said that on BNN, Logistic launched a strategic review (still looking for news on that one too).
My point is that a credible, Montreal based investment manager thinks a deal is likely. I don't think anything is guaranteed, but he has been right not once but twice before in recent months.
Good luck to all.