RE:THX to all those that made......mrmomo wrote: Their valuable contribtions to the "Just asking some SU s/h" thread. Some very interesting & enlightening points were made by many of you. Others not so much 8)....
But i think the majority of us......meaning those well educated, well informed smart & perceptive ones, ALL agree this will be a Chess match waiting game to see WHO blinks first. And i think we can agree, after all the points that were raised, that Suncor has the slim advantage over Total & the ball in is Total's court now. Th question now is, "How much longer can both Total & Suncor AFFORD to hang on & wait for other to give in"? Both for VERY deifferent reasons alltogether. For Total it's mainly a monetary question as well as one of princicpales & image. For Suncor, it's one regarding cementing & securing its positioin in the future and making sure operations run smoothly as possible with no hiccups. I'll leave it up to you to deicde who you think is the first to so weakness & blink.
Personally, after many decades of XP in this sector and knowing both these companies VERY well, including the way they act, behave & think, i think its not too easy to predict and bascially up in the air. To some who may think the French have drawn the short stick and their number is up soon, those that think this, DO NOT KNOW the French very well, and how stubborn & difficult they can be when...... or to what lengths their willing to go when they have something so deeply infused, ingrained into their psyche.
The final outcome ......when it comes ......should be intresting........nonetheless.
GLTA
i think you gave too much credence to the french/Total entities.
SU also win if total doesn't sell their FH interest. SU will be billing its partner for development cost, Total will have to pay up their share as a WI partner (meaning SU foot out less development capital). Total's share of production still have to run it through SU's upgrader and refineries. The fear that SU's downstream get under utilized due to not owning 100% of FH is overblown. If total doesn't pay up their share of Mail Ballots/AFEs, I'm sure in the WI agreement says SU owns 100% of FH until the unpaid bills get pays out. Development penalty usually runs at ~100%. It comes down to a choice of total selling FH now or not participate but get ding hard as FH development proceed.