RE:RE:RE:RE:Reality CheckThe one thing I gleaned from ONC/Y’s recent public offering is that they really are in no hurry to sell the company. This confirms the statement made in the last quarterly webcast that they were going to take their time wrt a buyout. However, they did say that a buyout was a goal.
I’m wondering if that thinking has changed with the PanCan announcement. They may be rolling the dice here – if they can last through enough of the PanCan Phase 3 programme to get Accelerated Approval (or even possibly finish the Phase III programme) they will possibly not require further financing rounds. They could then bootstrap the mBC Phase 3 programme from the revenues accrued from Pela’s PDAC sales. A sale to BP would not be necessary if even one Phase 3 programme was successful. However, $15 million isn’t a lot when one undertakes a Phase 3 programme or two.
This “go-it-alone” idea scares me somewhat, as I’m not sure they are analysing the Phase 3 risk properly. Numbers vary depending on source, but only 42-46% of Phase 3 trials are successful. Goblet results were impressive on an anecdotal basis, but they were nowhere near statistically significant. In Phase 3, there’s many a slip ‘twixt the cup and the lip. If the PanCan trial is unsuccessful, ONC/Y’s putative value will be a fraction of what it currently is.
I’ve sat on a few BoDs (private, not public companies). I’ve watched as the prospect of transformational wealth turned otherwise rational, intelligent people into uncritical risk gluttons. Often it doesn’t end well.
I hope we will have some clarity next Monday as to their direction. I’m overweight on ONC/Y but I’m not happy about this financing round. It kicks the can down the road a long way.