RE:RE:RE:What to make
I saw a note somewhere that TMX line fill was just over 5 million barrels. just being a parrot there.
For those guys long YGR I really feel that we are going to have a natural gas surprise to the upside at some point.
The gas link line fill is one opportunity but there is also the TC expansion into NW U.S., a couple of smaller LNG facilities, potentially one more greenfield large facility and LNG Canada FOR SURE will announce phase 2 at some point. Too much capital has been spent in advance to let that go.
The 2 BCF going to LNG when operational will allow another egress point but to take your point I suspect it will not be the massive gravy train hoped for because a lot of gas will be generated internally by the owners because they do own a log of production/acreage. It might offset the dumping into the AECO market though. And at some point I would assume they will add liquids extraction so you can ship wet gas and have a port sitting right there to sell propane or butane without railing it all. For the immediate two years I would just be happy with a small mismatch in volumes generating a higher stable price and the ability to lock in REASONABLE gas prices like 4-5.00 an MCF with a long term contract. Less need to hedge at fugly summer prices- replaced by more long term contracted volume.
so, lol, I think yes it will improve pricing..