RE:Cenovus spent almost $4.5-billion on royalties and taxes in Good to know i have pegged this at 8 to 10 billion in my opinion for what i consider a fair buyout price for oil alone. I wouldnt be the least surprised if these companies are trying to get it for 1 to 2 billion that is quite a low ball. 4 billion assuming 200 million shares woiuld put this at 20 per share. That is still low 5 billion would put it around 25 per share which i have said it should not be any less of.
8 billion would be around 40 a share. Now if Cenovus is spending 4.5 billion in taxes and royalties in 2022 and assuming the taxes are moving up to penalize the ghg emitters i would assume holding things constant same tax and royalties payout this would equate to 2 years worth of expense for Cenovus.
The companys plan by the looks of it is still to most likely license out for whatrever time it takes to establish being not only able to get contracts amidst smaller producers but show the tech is essential and integral to have a significant cost saving benefit and a strong corporate image of being a greener and responsible producer.
Lets see where things go. I believe i said earlier this is worth 8 to 10 billion and was seeing other prices and calculations based on 200 million shares as a rough estimate as to where the share count maybe and for ease of figuring out prices. Anything less than 8 to 10 billion i consider a low ball offer...anything equating at less than a $40 per i will reject if tabled and it should not include selling the whole ip but limit it to oil and gas alone not for all other ones like hydrogen potash etc that will be super bad.
Simply put i am after $100 plus here and given the potential and providing the company is patient as well as sees it can successfully keep going they should but again i said what i said...if this gets fully sold below my desired prices all i could ever do is what i am holding the bulk of my shares as my strategy doesnt include trading them...at least not my core 7000 and will involve ideally speaking about 900 shares being sold out at 50 per shares to hold a core of 6000 for that $100 plus that is in truth my plan.
I have in essence 100 shares from.what i once stated 1000 to 1200 traders. I changed this mostly as i am more currently stating my goal is to pay my debt off trying to double out money i use elsewhere to conserve using shares here this has and remains my single share i am looking to hold in this amounts. Originally i was also thinking to hold possibly some shares in other companies not doubling out on all but that will not fit as much as trying to get faster money. I am not looking to hold axe because i am sincere as i tried to explain i am doing so because i am convinced this is a very good long term hold and it will be fully established once the testing cycle concludes.
Whatever shares i have above 7000 become my traders but like i said i am not motivated to move even at the $2 level however if when it hits that point and providing it stays flat dead money like this i will most likely move 100 share out and work with that amounts elsewhere although as i am indicating whether or not i get rml i will likely look to work with buying another equity to open up my trading route as if i wait for $2 here i may be waiting for some time which i dont mind as i am strongly convinced around years end next year this should be better than that but hard to saybwhat the price will be prior to thevtest being completed and contracts coming in so i need to look shorter term and why i said what i did with rml that is my most likely pick outside that probably acu but if neither i will be as i said inclined to add more here up to $1.00.
Regardless of price points and upon successful testing i can tell you one thing for sure we wont be pissing aroundva disgusting and pathetic .21 to .215. I think when i saw this get to .245 i was excited and expected to see it run to .30 before leveling at least .25 but nope...nevertheless i said if the company failed to close the pp i can understand it trading less than .23 so should i be surprised? Nope. Another poster said until the heat goes on if i rember correctly it is a .20 to .23 stock and that is what the bids have been showing where the floor is at this point consolidating between .21 and .215 which relatively speaking is way better than less which would really bug me because i see this as i said at no less than $1.50 right now however that is why i said i will buy up to a buck i already value these at $2 the market will catch up when more risks are taken out pp closed heat back on the heating cycle expected as planned and no more repairs needed until at the very least after the testing finished but hopefully it goes for another year or more after but that is needed to see how much wear and tear comes the expense to fix it and how that effects the cost side of things .
But i have laid things out very honestly and stil looking to fulfil what i said of disapoearing because if i am not able to keep my word on that my sincere intentions are to do so as for sincerity for any stock it will always be based on what i see is the best strategy for me to optimize growth and reduce loss and because stocks are very dynamic and if things are not working time to change them up. Funny law of attraction i thought ok when will someone fuss about my saying rml is a caveat and boom not too long after there it was from the one person who i thought would take offence to the post like i said i am not the least bit surprised it was him.
Now either this stock lives up to my minimal expectations or if not i will need to start selling it off i minimally expect $2 by this time next year as i said i am holding all my 7100 shares until it hits at least $2 and i repeat when it does and if stale i will look to sell 100 shares to have money to use. I am hoping it doesnt take a year to see $2 a share and this is at a better price if not i am accounting for that. It is hard to know price points as a large amount of it is shareholders perceived value and sentiments. So far there has been negligable traction so not many new share buyers as to why this is likely still piddling where it is as well as the company not signalling they actually started the final workover. As trivial as that may sound and whether it has any lasting affect in a near share increase was still needed to bring shareholder confidence because we cant assume the 8th was a given so this was in my eyes another folly on the companys part. Given how they were not very transparent soon enougj to the extent of the damage unless they come out and say the workover has started i take it as it hasnt. The company also should have fixed the q2 workover completion they did not say that date is not likely so this is why a trivial seeming press indicating the process is actually not really trivial it was needed.
Lets see if a press will be given despite now being 4 days in to the expected time not that they keep waiting. That should have been preseed fluff or not that is all part of building and keeping retail confidence. As for the pp that outside date is rapidly approaching i dont really know what they could say with that. Hopefully there is enough monies flowing in to avoid a further extension. Given it didnt close and we have strong partners this is not good at all it pretty well confirms what i have said all along they dont care in helping because they want the company to struggle hoping they will dilute dilute dilute for the overall value in the ip to be less and less due to more shares. It also establishes the ongoing lack of share support i kept talking about the shares wouldnt have dropped as low if the insiders who are affiliated with the bigger companies gave a damn no excuse for less than a buck actually...this is most likely the case i called go along to get along...so business is business i said one good turn deserves another.
Lets see if we get a press indicating the workover is in fact underway that will be great and then close the pp on or before the 21 st that will be great and finally the heating restart no later than the first week September that will be awesome where things go share wise as well as process wise will then be wait and see. Ideally i expect the shares no lower than $2 this year but the way this is going yeah i am tending to agree with jefferys this will not exceed .70 unless things change drastically in shareholder perception and sentiments but judging by what is going on not likely as i dont think too many new people have come but even if yes and they have eyes on it the overall market is shiate so there is no urgency to buy anything. This will have to continue to go through the fire and keep derisking and proving what Bullish people already see oh well so be it. As i said as disgusting is the share price that on the flipside makes me extremely bullish and i am willing to move up to a buck given i already value it at $2. Lets see when the market catches up i have no idea but i will put this aside and focus on what i need to to let things build here as i see and more closer to what i am after.