85 oil factorI still think a person needs to be forecasting all of these companies with a 75 WTI oil usd and 2.50 Aeco Summer and 3.50 Aeco winter price and some undervalued opportunitirs probably exist. I am not saying 85 is impossible only that a price over 80 really draws out supply. Lots of simmering stories in the background right now.
Nigeria. Nigeria has a really massive gov budget gap and they look to be taking serious measures. They actually used their air force to bomb oil smugglers that were stealing oil from pipelines. They ended gasoline subsidies to genral public in Late May and their gov is going to want oil revenue dollars to increase social programs and stop potential civil unrest. Country like Nigeria really needs USA currency right now. They gained 200k per day today as a port shut down since July 14th returned. So nigeria is at like 1.5m range. Nigeria has technical capability of 2.5m if they ever can get things under control. The longer oil is over 80 more likely one of these months we will see a good nigeria oil jump. They have good oil zones.
Kurdistan is being withheld 400k.
And Russia raised their interest rates from 8.5 to 12%...can Russia afford to restrict supply?
Cold reality is China is basically in a recession and 85 oil and china recession doesnt work long term.