RE:RE:RE:Still INTERESTING In Getting 31.23% of Fort Hills From TOTAL
ztransforms173 wrote:
production and capital profile aren't the same as conventional/shale oil. Long story short, it's better to go steady eddy with oilsand as payout isn't quick like shale oil, need to maximize utilization of existing facilities.
- SAGD CAPITAL EFFICIENCIES are the INDUSTRY-LEADING FULL-CYCLE segment
- Cenovus Energy Chistina Lake PHASE G 50,000 bbls/d BOP EXPANSION came in at LESS than $ 16,000 PER BARREL of BOP CAPACITY [2017-2019]
- this works out to LESS than $ 800 million
- COMPARE this to Fort Hills or for that matter OFFSHORE Atlantic platforms
* sure, you are comparing APPLES with ORANGES and PEARS but they are ALL FRUITS (sour bitumen versus light sweet oil) and {SAGD versus MINED DILBIT versus HIGH-PRESSURE conventional offshore oil}
- I do NOT know the MAXIMUM STEAM GENERATION capacity and the MAXIMUM WATER/OIL processing facilities at Firebag so it would be HARD to QUANTIFY a 50,000 bbls/d BOP EXPANSION there
* I am SURE that Suncor has MODELLED and SIMULATED such a project and PROBABLY LESS THAN a 50,000 bbls/d INCREMENTAL capacity increase
* also, there will be a HUGE INFLATIONARY FACTOR from the 2017 to 2019 time frame
- from my IN-DEPTH FOLLOWING of MEG, CVE and others; I came to the CONCLUSION that in the LONG RUN, SAGD operations give the HIGHEST RETURNS on INVESTMENT in the crude oil industry
- of course, the GREEN CULT SCAM with their RIGGED playing field could ALTER this ASSESSMENT
z173
well, it depend how one define 'expansion'. If the expansion involve mostly adding new SAGD wells feeding into existing processing facility with minimum facility modification, yah, it's easy and economics are great. As for CVE christina lake phase G expansion, it's was done during 2015-2019, before covid, low interest rate environment, relatively stable costs. Cenovus happen to have spare surface facility capacity to take in the expansion production.Christina lake is still on an expansion path to feed the base plant.
CL production forecast Christina Lake (Cenovus Energy Inc.) Oil Sands Field, Canada (offshore-technology.com)
CVE has also approved (in 2020-2021 ??) phase H expansion and expect to commence in 2025. Cost estimate (done before covid) was 20,000 $/bod. I'm pretty sure cost would come in higher given recent inflaton on everything . If you dunno, it takes 4-6 years after first steam injection to reach peak production. So add in the time of construction + peak oil, you're looking at easy 5+ years easy to start seeing serious cashflow even though cost per barrel look cheap.
What i had described 'expansion' involved plant capacity additon for new incremental production. Suncor website said:
215,000 barrels per day
Total production capacity at Firebag.
Firebag (Suncor Energy Inc.) Oil Sands Field, Canada (offshore-technology.com)
The Firebag (Suncor Energy Inc.) oil sands field recovered 23.06% of its total recoverable reserves, with peak production expected in 2023. The peak production will approximately 212.18 thousand bpd of crude oil and condensate.
So, firebag is near plant's nameplate capacity already, any new 'phase expansion' would require extra plant capacity (serious $$) on top of new SAGD wells. In this case, if i'm Suncor, I would refrain from phase expansion and let firebag cruise along steady eddy at near plant capacity without spending a dime on new hardware.