RE:Dogger - Objective ReasoningHey lithomon
I did some Katie Lachapelle reading and I can see the June 2 notes on her TP cut to $4.00 from $4.50:
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“The PFS results were largely negative relative to our forecasts and the PEA, with both capital and operating costs up materially (but offset by higher pricing),” she said. “In our view, this was not surprising, given recent inflationary pressures we’ve seen across the industry (e.g., Thacker Pass, Kathleen Valley, etc.); and overall, we think the updated technical report outlines a more realistic operational and financial outcome for Frontier.
“Furthermore, the project still presents robust operating margins (approximately 65 per cent) on our long-term price deck and Frontier continues to screen cheap vs. other North American developer peers (0.53 times NAV vs. peers at 0.62 times). An update on the road infrastructure will be a critical next update for the company, in our view.”
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She seems to acknowledge inflation as a factor in driving down the valuation as well as a more realistic approach to operations than the PEA suggested. She then went on to indicate that a road update would be an important next step.
Please publish anything else she may have said that I can't dig up. Nothing here seems critical of management or operations though she acknowledged the slight pricing discrepancy relative to peers.
I saw the Tesla offtake announcement sling PLL into the stratosphere but the PMET/Albermarle investment seems to have had a net zero or even negative effect on PMET SP. I feel sometimes that the timing of the news is vastly more important than the news itself on a short term basis but meaningless on a long term basis. Hitting Rodney Hooper's $7 blue sky target would have been great but likely have had more to do with BS luck than any sort of art or science. I'm sure we'll eventually run it over on the way to greener pastures but weren't lucky enough to have it happen recently. Just my humble opinion.
Please share the actual verbiage of Katie's criticisms / suggestions if you can dig them up. I'm always interested in new angles.
GLTA