RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Ok I wiil say it65FO9A, I use the Leontief Input-Ouput model for an open economy in order to estimate oil price movements. Leontief won a Nobel prize for it, so it must be useful. It's a matrix equation. Crude as my home made application of Leontief's model may be, it is showing me that Mexico and others are becoming factors with increasing weight in future oil demand. That's because the rate of growth of the rate of growth (second derivative) is becoming more positive while China's is starting to get less positive. In lay person's terms the hill is becoming steeper as you climb for Mexico's oil consumption with respect to time while China's is beginning to flatten out.
As I understand it, oil traders focus on these trends, the key one being whether the month-on-month (mom), year-on-year (yoy) changes in consumption are getting larger or smaller. If the yoy changes are getting larger, as it is in the case of Mexico then it means that next years yoy change from this year will be greater than this year's yoy change from last year. The hill is getting steeper.
My understanding is that oil traders quantify all of the input factors into their consumption models to try to determine why things are changing and it seems that a growing manufacturing base in Mexico accounts for the growing yoy increases. As you might have guessed I may have also read some linear algebra text books in my spare time to try to understand all of this complex stuff. Anyway I'll stick to my belief that oil consumption will continue to rise over the very long term as North America displaces China as the world's factory with bte stock increasing with the hill getting steeper yoy in terms of sp as time goes on. And no, I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed. I just try to continually hone my skills.