SPCEO1 wrote: It would be great if they took a more active approach to communications but I suspect it would not matter much in this case since it seems to me it is most likely there is a large shareholder who is determined to sell their holdings and really do not care about the price they receive. Most likely, the value of the holding in this portfolio is so small now that the stock has almsot no impact on the overall performance of the portfolio and the portfolio manager just wants the eyesore out of the portfolio. So, if that guess is accurate, it really is not going to matter what THTX says right now - the stock is going to be under pressure until the seller no longer holds any more shares.
It is hard to see any news the company could put out right now, short of a meaningful partnership for TH-1902, that would lead any potential sizable retail buyers to step up and buy. Institutions are not really able to buy and would likely only do so in an offering if at all. If THTX renegotiated the Marathon loan so that the principle repayments were spread out over a longer time frame, that would also likely help the stock. Perhaps the 3 month extension Marathon has given penalty free is meant to be used to conclude such a renegotiation. If so, it may not come to a conclusion until 10/31, so no relief for the stock from that source until then.
So, unless the seller is almost done selling, we should expect the stock to remain under presure as it seems too early for a meaningful partnership to be put together (more TH-1902 data likely required to pull that off, but maybe some other aspect of the Sort1+ platform could be partnerred now with the partner taking over every aspect of R&D) and a renegotiation may not be concluded this soon before 10/31.
Marathon has good reason to opt for a renegotiation as THTX has the capacity to pay the loan off without a hitch if the principal payments can be spread out over a longer period and this gives Marathon a longer time to charge THTX very high interest rates which make this an attractive asset in their portfolio. Also, by agreeing to changes now, Marathon can avoid THTX finding another lender to replace them on the first $40 million which can be paid back without penalty starting next Summer. And THTX should be throwing off significant free cash flow by then making finding another lender that much easier. A longer time period for repayment also gives THTX more time to benefit from success in TH-1902 via the warrants, which might make the THTX asset for Marathon go from a really attractive return to an astounding return. F8 will also likely be approved early in 2024 and Egrifta sales could be showing early signs of boosting THTX's revenues nicely which would also help THTX find a replacement lender for Marathon.
As I said earlier, THTX's stock is bankrupt but THTX the company has a lot of options left including more than I have mentioned here and Marathon has a lot of good reasons to try to retain their THTX loan asset. That being said, the beatings will likely continue for THTX shareholders until morale improves (or until the current seller runs out of shares to sell)!
Bucknelly21 wrote: It's pretty wild to be on the sideline for a change and watch with no longer an emotional attachment to the sp. They seem to not no how to manage the sp in any way. Sad to watch it bleed out daily with no updates or anything