CO 2 Credits…..To generate or to BuyIgnoring the idiots comments, large emitters like Shell etc have the option to buy offsetting CO2 Credits or offset their emissions by generating their own CO2 credits.
Re the latter option , cogent arguments can be made that Shell would consider generating its own C02 credits and take advantage of tax credits and operating costs needed to generate.
Of course, there would be an accountancy consideration as well.
But, let's take the Amazonia reforestation Initiative and its dual drivers of carbon consumption and sequestration.
Lets assume that Shell makes decision to generate its own credits and buys Verde.
To start with, Shell has the capital to quickly catapult Verde as the major supplier of potash and its derivative fertilizers to the Brazil Agro market......small incentives , say $1 per acre , to farmers might be the initial inducement .
That market is now about 8 million tons per year , ....98% of which is imported.... which woul generate about 1.5 m tons of CO2 credits which if Verde/ Shell secured 75% of the Brazil potash market would generate about 1 m tons of CO2 credits for Shell.
Given how cheaply K Forte is produced, while noting the additional margin benefuciation due to huge volumes of product..Shell makes a very fat profit from its fertillizer business.
With 1.3 billion tons in potash Reserves, Verde has the LOM CO2 latency of permanently sequestering about 150 billion tons of CO2.
This of course would take decades but it is an asset that keeps on giving.
Now, Shell decides to get involved in a big way in the Amazon reforestation project from which it can generate not only permanent CO2 sequestration but also life cycle CO2 generation as those trees grow .
This is a rather simple process , the equivalent of the Bernanke helicopter money scheme in which seedlings and KForte are distributed by Helicopters to those deforested regions .
Shell gets the two sources of CO2 credits , tax credits , cost write offs and a huge publicity asset to mollify its customers .
We can see this type of CO2 asset buyout already happening .
Why not to Verde and its unassailable Potash reserves and derivative fertilizers ?
Even at $10 per share, the costs to Shell would be less than $350 m US .
Speculating of course, so let's hear the analytical rebuttals ..