RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:IF there is no PR tomorrow Thanks SPCEO. But you see in your message, twice you say "unless there is something we are not aware of". So even you can no longer trust them. If I would trust them myself I would average down, but there is no way on earth I will do so. I lost any trust I had in them, especially Levesque. The guy is simply awful. He brought nothing positive to the company. His main failure is that he was unable to really grow sales of Egrifta and Trogarzo, if you exclude price increases, so I mean unit sales. It was his main expertise and he failed miserably at that and now covid is no longer an excuse. He also spent like a drunken sailor. Spent in Europe only to shut that down after., unable to see Europe would never par a very high price for Trogarzo. Looking at all the hiring he did, looking for a chief of staff and all that, you thought, hey, something good is about to be announced, but no good news came. Francois Ravenelle, the former director at Thera was able in seven years to build and sell a company for up to 1.1 B US, and Inversago Pharma only had 22 employees. From what I know he was director of pharmaceutical development at Thera around 2011, at the time the company developed F4 and F8 formulations. So he is probably the guy that led that project, and after he left, Thera shelved those formulations for 6 or 7 years before starting to have them approved. This story is similar to a sport team that trade early a promising young player and go hired at a very high salary an aging free agent. The young player end up being a star elswhere, and the very expensive aging free agent is unable to rise your team.
SPCEO1 wrote: That is a pretty good, simple summary of the situation THTX created over the last 5 years. There were a lot of seemingly fat pitches that THTX swung and somehow missed on over the years. The convert now looks to be the biggest whiff but at least it indicated THTX management believed in their forecasts for Trogarzo at the time (or at least partially so). Despite all those whiffs, the stock price right now is ridiculous due to the relentless seller and the company is not in as bad a shape as it currently indicates (unless there is something going on that we are not aware of). Sales appear to be good, costs are coming down fast, there is plenty of cash to run the company and cash should soon be growing and their lender has thus far been friendly (as they should be since THTX has the capacity to pay off their loan with some adjustments to the length of the loan). The TH-1902 trial should get going soon (again unless there is something going on that has not yet been disclosed) and perhaps the results will provide good reason for the stock to recover in a very significant way. THTX is overdue for a turn in its bad luck. As I said, THTX stock may be bankrupt at the moment but the company is not.
Stay strong JFM!
jfm1330 wrote: The valuation represent exasperation from some shareholders. This management is always short of what they promised. The last real positive news for Thera was the approval of Trogarzo, at least it was positive on paper. Since this news that propelled the stock price, it is down and down and down. Sales of Trogarzo never came close to minimal expectations, then we got all this NASH smokescreen, first for HIV patients, then for general population, small phase III, big phase III, then phase II/III. All that failed because our big pharma CEO was never able to convince ant partner. Then you have the TH1902 phase I blunder, with an ill concieved protocol that lasted three times what they said it would. In parallel, Tanguay believed his own BS and borrowed money on the back of Trogarzo's approval instead of doing a financing at a ggod price. Then Levesque came in with this debt problem, but nonetheless hired staff as if he was still working at Pfizer. And now the company is in bad financial position with Marathon holding them, and they failed their latest promises on restarting TH1902's trial. So yes, some decided that this company can no longer be trusted. That does not mean that the situation is lost and selling was the right idea, but it is understandable because they are unable to deliver on simple timelines.
SPCEO1 wrote: I suspect a PR really would not change the situation as we clearly have a large seller who is selling without regard to price - they just need to get out for some reason or just can't emotionally deal with holding the stock any longer. Also, the share price is only frustrating shreholders but THTX's business is likely unaffected by it. According to Bloomberg, which admittedly cannot be fully trusted, June and July sales were pretty good.
The silence on restart of the TH-1902 trial is odd. So, one can reasonably conclude something might be up on that front, If it was material bad info, they would have to announce that. so that does not seem to be the case. It is likely just slow hospitals getting what needs to be done to start the trial actually done. On the positive side, as Palin mentioned, perhaps there is a partner that wants to change the trial before signing a partnership deal. But we really can only speculate and the simplest explanation is unfinished paperwork at the testing centers or really caerful patient selection.
The valuation is pretty crazy at the moment, but with this seller in the market, it could even go lower if they still have more to sell.
Lee430 wrote: Sure looks like we're going under a dollar again on Monday ish... How about a PR saying something like restarted trial is moving forward a little slower than anticipated to ensure we enroll the best candidates for a successful trial.... Come on guys this is a Canadian wildfire that is burning down your business.