Estimated Forward Quarterly Production The essential Phase 2 statistics needed to do so..
1.....total number of benches upon completion ...5 ( see notes below )
2...Annual Production capacity ....2 million tons
3..Annual Production per Bench ....400,000 tons
4..Quarterly production per bench .....100,000 tons
5..Benches 1 and 2 began producing very late May In Q2
6. Bench 3 was completed in July of Q3
7..Bench 4 scheduled to be completed late Q4
8..Bench 5 scheduled to be completed during Q2 of 2024
Check.
In my previous post, I estimated from comparisons of grade and tonnage that 70,000 tons of high grade ore were produced ( mined ) in Q2.
This was from Benches 1 and 2 which were completed in late May, so those benches produced for one month.
Had they been producing for the entirety of Q2 ( 3 months ) 200,000 tons ( 2 benches times 100,000 tons per bench ) of high grade ore would have been produced.
That is, for just one month ( June of Q2 ) which is 200,000 tons / 3 which is very close to 70,000 tons estimated independently from Grade and Tonnage.
So, these two benches are capable of producing 200,000 tons in Q3 ( 100,000 tons times 2 ) .
The third bench was completed in July of Q3 so, I assume 2 full months of production for this bench in Q3 which is about 70,000 tons of high grade ore.
So , total tonnage of high grade ore being mined in Q3 is 270,000 tons which @ 1.32 grams per ton = 11,500 ounces plus 230 ,000 tons @0.3 grams which is 2500 ounces.
That is , Q3 production is estimated to be about 14,000 ounces .
These 3 benches will produce 300,000 tons in Q4 plus an assumed one month for Bench #4 for a total high grade tonnage of 335,000 tons which @1.32 grams per ton which is about 15,500 ounces plus 130,000 ounces @0.3 grams per ton which is 1500 ounces .
So, total production for Q4 is estimated to be about 17,000 ounces
Bench #4 will be in full production in Q1 of 2024 and, taken as read , 400,000 tons of high grade ore which combined with 100,000 tons of 0.3 grams per ton gets us to nearly 20,000 ounces in Q4 of 2024.
Hence, at some point in Q2 of 2024 we shall reach about 22,500 ounces per Quarter .
Caveats
1..Tonnage mined in 2024 is forecast to increase to 2.3 m tons per year which should get us to about 100,000 ounces per year
2..They May decide that , rather than having a signifucant portion of their mining fleet and Mill lay vacant in Q3 and Q4, they will deploy their entire mining fleet on those benches that are available to be mined.
This decision makes good business sense, as the Phase 2 expansion has a mine life of 8.5 years, so more intensively mining the first completed 3 benches for 2-3 months won't alter the mine life.
Have a great Weekend
In Q2 FY2023, significant progress was achieved in the Songjiagou (“SJG”) Open-Pit Mine expansion program. Phase 2 of the 2nd bench was successfully completed during the period.
Subsequently, the Company moved forward with the completed development of the 3rd bench in July 2023, signaling continued momentum of its expansion efforts.
Currently, the Company has initiated development work on the 4th and 5th bench and projects completing Phase 1 of the development by the end of FY2023 and completion of Phase 2 during Q2 FY2024.
The Company acknowledges that accessibility to higher-grade ore and overall mobility within the open-pit remains restricted during the expansion work as these constraints are a natural outcome of the expansion activities.