$ 3 Billion ?Best guess of it's valuation, upon FDA final approval (likelihood between 70 and 95% depending on who you talk to) ?
Should be $ 3B (Cdn $)
Loosely based on:
$ 2B USD market annually (their claim) and EBITDA calcs with 40% penetration (using their numbers)
If EDEN works as expected (to widen the label), and dosage is made correct (i.e. increased as a result of RWE, Euphas2, etc.), and Dr.s realize it will have becme the new SOC (i.e no choice but to try to save lives/increase market penetration) and you include Canada (waiting for FDA)
Then I think, with EAA sales worldwide, the market is conservatively $ 3B (USD )
Say $ 4B CAD
Extrapolating 3/4 X sales, as a valuation - seems very reasonable to me....as a treatment for an affliction that is (1) on the increase and (2) has no real other treatment...other than antibiotics (that are running out)
What they will realize for it from a US major depends on their negotiation skills.
glta
MM