RE:RE:Keys to Successful Investing Over the Long RunGreat thoughts you just said here.
I'll throw this in as well.
When oil and oil companies went to near zero, cut down by ESG, the Saudi/Russia oil spat, the energy transition hype with EVs, poor energy policy, the outbreak of Covid before vaccines and the shutdowns, the entire investment world bailed on energy and raced to the other side of the rink and even pulled their goalie.
I barely had enough money remaining to continue my retirement, even questioned if I could continue to live in this low cost third world country of Thailand.
I remembered something that Kevin O'Leary said a long time ago, about playing the doomsday short, saying that if it plays out and you win, you really lose because what kind of world would it be like in the end.
I decided that the selloff response was way too far overblown, and if the world survives, oil would rebound in a spectacular rally. I went all in, and stood there alone by the empty net, expecting the puck to bounce back from the rest of the players to my side of the rink, and it sure did. The results were beyond my wildest dreams.
Today, even after this fantastic recovery in oil and oil stocks from the lows, I still see signs that the pendulum has still not shifted back all the way to a balanced position, and oil and oil stocks still have a lot of runway left to the upside. EV adoption will certainly cause some loss in gasoline use, however the data I see continue to point that gains in total global oil demand will continue to be greater.
There are headwinds, but if we get through this current turmoil, and global growth starts up again in a year or two, oil demand will rapidly increase again, and push oil prices into triple digits as the normal price.
I feel there is still far too much confidence placed on the success of this energy transition, and expectations of net zero targets will not be met by even the most modest timeframe, if ever. ESG investment vehicles have plummeted as cash is being pulled out. Wind and solar projects are being cancelled, as those companies are receiving a wake up call to economic reality of the need to produce a profit. EVs have had initial easy successes with those early affluent and keen adopters, but perhaps future sales will slow as we just aren't ready, and it still doesn't work practically for most people in so many areas of the neighbourhood and around the globe.
This is a forced transition, not an economic one, and the policies that are driving this are only there as long as the governments that support them are in power. Elections are coming.
We have seen that a mere hiccup of a Ukraine war has immediately put climate in the back seat behind energy security, and caused a resurgence in coal, which was arguably a better investment than oil was lately. Again, everyone went to where the puck was going, and there was an empty net sitting there.
I value all the opinions on this board, and learn from everyone. It is then up to each of us to process this information and be the judge, and come up with a decision of what to believe, and invest accordingly.
Let's try to hold back a bit and keep our Egos out of this, and refrain from attacking people that take time to give their opinions as they see things. Because once in a while, while all the players are busy chasing after the puck far away on the other side, it bounces back to them standing all alone beside an open net.
Oldnagger wrote: Well, my friend, I too have been at this game for a very long time . My first purchase was Husky at 7 5/8 some time in the late 50 s or early 60 s. Unlike you or Gretzky , I have always been playing for myself and not the team. Personally , that leads me to a greater amount of risk taking than either of you may want to assume.
Here is what works for me. Number 1 is search out great value. That is also number 2 thru 25 !! Secondly great value means not only the earnings values but more importantly asset values. Asset values provide a firewall . That is my number 1 reason that I have invested in SU CNQ CR PEY etc among others
Importantly never jump in before spending a good amount of time studying the company and the environment it is in. A lot of investors here are very concerned with the investment environment
I am not. My reasons are many and varied and certainly have not been made lightly They revolve around many considerations that I have posted on for the past few years
Furthermore , most importantly , think about what your investment vehicle can do to detour around road blocks
Equally importantly never jump out before spending a good amount of time understanding whether you are acting rationally or emotionally
Penultimately , for now, assess your own pain and pleasure levels . If you play this game long enough you will surely experience large dollops of each If your pleasure level gets too high think about easing up If your Pain level gets too high then definetly get out. Give yourself time to re-assess before going elsewhere or getting back in
And finally, always treasure what others have to say on these boards. Unlike hockey this is not a Team sport where the longs are playing against the shorts. We are all here to win no matter what side of the centre line we are on and that means that we all need to listen to each other's relevant opinions and be thankful that others have taken the time and effort to post them !!