Reality vs games ...2 months ago the # sites increased by 20% ( 3/15 sites)
Will the potential enrollment rate have increased again (3 more) by the end of this month?
Fewer FUD dummies are now predicting it will take 2, 3, 4+ years to get to 90 and 7 years to achieve 150?
They are now down to 2 years on the 150. That in itself is a major negative stretch - given: (1) more sites, (2) better sites - ie. newer ones enrolling at a faster pace, and (3) the shot in the arm momentum increase from the famous May meeting, etc.)
Now add in the TV spot ( starting this Monday)
The FUD workers are down to extrapolating the month of August's enrolment (the slowest month typically becasue of ICU staff vacationing)
Possible Pathway to 90 BEFORE YEAR END from an earlier prediction by MM:
july +3. cumm. 68 Cumulative Achieved
aug +4. cumm 72 Cumulative achieved
sept +5 cumm 77 TBD
oct +5 cumm. 82 TBD
nov + 6 cumm 88 TBD
I'm looking forward to a possible increase in the pace starting in Sept (post vacation period, new sites, etc.)
Personally, at 90, I am hoping for the release of some raw mortality stats at that time (interim data release) that might enable investors ( but at the very least Baxter) to statistically gauge the odds of ultimate FDA approval in this OPEN LABEL, BAYESIAN, CONFIRMATORY, 3B RCT TRIAL with a 28 DAY MORTALITY PRIMARY END POINT, clearing the pathway to a minimum of a $2BILLION USD market ( more likely $3-$5 B IMO)
MM