LCFS numbersI think pierrelebel's $130 - $150 EBITDA is for the parent company.
Scotia uses a $105 million EBITDA runrate for the HDRD plant and applies a 5X multiple to get a value of $525 million.
As of Q2, LCFS had net debt of $293 million. I think there was a further cost over-run of $8 million. Call the debt $300 million. That would mean that at year end '23 LCFS should have an equity value of $6.48 per share. (525 - 300 divided by 34.7 million shares)
If nothing changes over the next 2 years, if LCFS pays off $75 million of debt each year, the equity would increase to $8.64 at yearend '24 and $10.80 yearend 2025. At that point, net debt would be $150 million. If LCFS were to decide that to be an appropriate level of leverage, they might devote that annual $75 million to stock buybacks. This is where things get interesting.
Big IF, but let's pretend you could buy 7.5 million shares of LCFS at $10 per share for 2 years running. That would reduce shares outstanding to 27.5 million at yearend 2026 and 20 million at yearend 2027. Your annual numbers would then be $525 enterprise value - $150 debt divided by 27.5 and 20 to get $13.63 in 2026 and $18.75 in 2027. Obviously, a lot of water will go under the bridge between now and then and these numbers will look comic in 2027. Nonetheless, they show that there's potentially a lot of upside for LCFS.