$$$ US market Opportunity $$$I find it interesting that Spectral's latest projections for PMX and the US market (only) - page 16 of the Sept 2023 Investor Presentation, forecast $ 309M EBITDA based on 50% market penetration (i.e if they treat 1/2 of the 140,000 or so ESS patients per annum (assumimg FDA approval)
This does not include the Cdn market. If it did it might be reasonable to increase this figure by 12%
So say $ 346 M USD Addressable market EBITDA (309 x 1.12)
Let's convert that to Cdn $ since that is what the stock is based in
1.35 X $ 346 M USD = $ 467M CAD EBITDA
What a conservative EBITDA multiple for and FDA approved solution to ESS for which there is no competition, and none on the horizon ?
A super conservative one would be 10 X (as referenced in previous posts - here's one that says 21X https://www.equidam.com/ebitda-multiples-trbc-industries/
So using a conservative 10X that would put a value of $ 4.67 B using Spectral's projections and industry averages.
I'll let readers do the math when they divide that value by a fully diluted shareholder base of about 320M shares...to arrive at a value per share.
Hint: divide $ 4.67B by 320M
Of course this does not include revenue estimates for world-wide sales of the EAA (which would likely increase immeasurably once PMX achieved the FDA gold standard seal of approval).
Of course it also does not include:
- PMX use for other afflictions (see numeous studies posted)
- Wider use due to an expanded lable (as evidenced by EDEN and Euphas2 for example.
- Potential for higher dose usage post apprpoval (ie more than two cartridges) - as has shown to be beneficial in various studies.
MM