OREA, Nordglold and Montagne d'Or still in the airQuestions that long suffering shareholders and wily traders are waiting to be answered.
1. Will CAD accept the new revised payment procedures for OREA and Nordgold?
2. If yes to one, then will France accept this new agreement between OREA and NG seeing the last one fell outside the French timelines for submission?
3. When will the French Supreme Court after well over a year make a decision on the renewal of the Montagne mine exploration licenses?
4. Will the SC also give OREA the daily compensation that was requested?
However, even if there are positive answers to 1-4 does it matter if France/Macron has said no since 2019 to a mining permit?
IMHO not really. Bottomline, Macron can’t go back on his electoral word in which he highlighted Montagne d’Or as one of his environmental wins. With such a block it’s highly unlikely a Western miner will JV or buyout (a Chinese just maybe as they play the very long game and shareholders aren't too much of a concern in decision making, but it’s a very long shot).
Further, France is unlikely to settle with OREA/NG without having the cover of a formal CofA case to reduce any settlement criticism.
For NG, OREA is their only way of getting some cash back (even with acceptable financial sanction procedures in place) from their Montagne d’OR project.
OREA, I think only has to pay NG if the mine permits are received. If not, then it appears the only cash access for NG is via its around 10% shareholding in OREA.
Without the mine permits being granted then OREA, IMO, goes to the CofArb (regardless of yah or nay to #1, 2, 3 and 4 and hopefully sooner rather than later).
However, a SC compensation award (in the millions #4) would give OREA the money to carry out its own litigation, rather than having to pay the legal costs and award commission (20 – 33%) of any funder. This would be a major savings as court costs for 2-3 years can be 3-5 million plus.
The Claim?
OREA holding (if granted #1) all of Montagne d’Or may be able to include all NG sunken costs around 40-50 million. OREA since around 2012 will be in the 15- 20 mill so around 70 mill since 2012 to 2020.
In terms of company value decimation, OREA sp was around CAD$0.70 in 2017 just pre BFS and today…? You work out the value lost to the company and shareholders by Macron’s switcherro in 2019 which clearly killed this entity. This after all his documented support as both minister and President prior to 2019.
Is France likely to settle to get this whole issue resolved? Maybe.
How should shareholders be treated if a settlement/ award? IMHO, management should create a new company for any future mining intentions and close OREA, assigning the majority of any cash gain to those shares and their holders (NG with 20 mill shares would be very interested even with any new financial sanctions). Anyone wanting to take the new ride with the OREA #2, good luck.
GLTA - -
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