RE:RE:Ahsineeg Its true that we can't truly know the value of LME due to restricted access to the data room but i cant help but think we can make some good inferences on price. This might not be news to alot of you but maybe a good summary of price predictions for the newbies. I will start with the lowest (lite-kool-aid nubmers) and work my way up to the *Hard* Kool-aid numbers.
In March 2020 Cynthia started referencing LME as a "10 bagger" stock. When she made this statement the stock was trading at 0.15 so 10 times would give us a value of $1.50 per share.
Roger and others have been very vocal about the Ishkoday having exceptionally low all in sustasining costs for an aquieror. As Ahsineeg pointed out we have close proximity to power, utilties, highway access and mineral resources with some fairly high drill results close to the surface making an exceptional case for an open pit mine. We also have a close proximity to a skilled workforce among the other strong positives ahsineed has highlighted.
I do not think it is unreasonable to asume a price per GEO of $300-$450 GEOs. This is where things dive into speculation. And, again, we simply do not know what the number will be but Roger has made several facebook posts in the past mentioning the exceptional "minability" of the Ishkoday.
How many GEOs are there? Well we know in 2019 Cynthia outlined the idea that she was going to prove 10M Geos. We know this number is a goal and has not been publicly PROVEN. But that does not mean there are not 10M geos on the ishkoday and it does not mean there are. There are four classes of GEOs. Proven, indicated, inferred and propable. For Cynthia to say she will prove 10M means there must be AT LEAST 10M somewhere across these four classes
I theorize that Cynthia made this statement in 2019 because she truly beleived there are 10M+ GEOs, she just has not proven them yet. So what has been proven? Well I do not beleive someone like Cynthia would make that kind of a statement without some kind reasoning behind it. I would guess (again speculation so take it as you please) we have PROVEN somewhere between 7-9M GEOS with another 3-5M GEOS across the areas of indicated, inferred and probable. Proven GEOs fetch a higher price than indicated and so on.
Scenario 1 -
7M GEO Proven ($350-$450/GEO) - 2.45B to 3.15B
3M GEO inferred, indicated, propable ($250-$300/GEO) - 750M to 900M
gives us a total of 3.2B to 4.05B which works out to roughly $12.15 to $15.39 a share
Scenario 2 -
7M GEO Proven ($350-$450/GEO) - 2.45B to 3.15B
5M GEO inferred, indicated, propable ($250-$300/GEO) - 1.25B to 1.5B
gives us a total of 3.7B to 4.65B which works out to roughly $14.06 to $17.67 a share
Scenario 3 -
9M GEO Proven ($350-$450/GEO) - 3.15B to 4.05B
3M GEO inferred, indicated, propable ($250-$300/GEO) - 750M to 900M
gives us a total of 3.9B to 4.95B which works out to roughly $14.82 to $18.81 a share
Scenario 4 -
9M GEO Proven ($350-$450/GEO) - 3.15B to 4.05B
5M GEO inferred, indicated, propable ($250-$300/GEO) - 1.25B to 1.5B
gives us a total of 4.4B to 5.55B which works out to roughly $16.72 to $21.09 a share
Back in November of last year Roger stated: "I predict that as spot gold prices moves back towards the $2,000 per ounce and beyond the $3,000 price, we could very well see a $5B and even a $10Billion acquisition within this Gold Super Cycle (2015 to 2025) note the $300 million break up fee in this transaction" I understand that Roger doesnt have access to the LME data room and we can go back and forth discussing how much he knows but I am mentioning this because regardless of Rogers direct or indirect knowledge of LME resources he is the second largest shareholder. I have no doubt a man with his expertise has the ability to somewhat give an accurate idea of price based off of drill results and his knowliedge of the ishkoday.
But take this solely as a guess/prediction, not a public declaration of fact.
5B less 300M break up fee works out to roughly 4.7B or a share price of $17.86 per share
10B less 300M break up fee works out to roughly 9.7B or a share price of $36.86 per share
On February 13 of this year DAM$ had a post where he predicted $11.50-$19 per share
My personal favourite (and the prediction I root for the most is Matlas) on july 17 he posted the following in a thread: “When I got involved in early 2019, I was told by my inside connected sources that she was looking for $27(per share), and they have found lots more gold since then.”
They’ve found more gold since then and the gold price has gone up significantly since then but even ignoring those factors and going solely based on the idea that Cynthia wanted 27 per share in 2019… there were just under 159,000,000 shares outstanding at the time… no there are 263,000,000 and change fully diluted so that number of 27 would translate to 16.32 per share today.
Again though there are factors in play since 2019 that merit a higher price. Gold prices ended 2019 at a high of 1523/oz were essentially 25% higher than that today. Even if they haven’t proven more geos since then (which we know they have just not how many) we’d theoretically be looking for 20.40 per share based on multiplying the 16.32 by an additional 25% for gold appreciation.
This still doesn’t factor in additional gold that has been proven since 2019. So if there is a much much larger gold find on the ishkoday than we realize and a 30 per share buyout is reality well.. that would be absolutely phenomenal! keep in mind there are very few entities with CASH like that laying around, but you never know until you know!
heres to a buyout somewhere in this range!
Cheers everyone!