CANDIAC 2I'm going to make a bold prediction here that we are on the verge (within weeks) of a major announcement about Candic 2 as well as Government funding for this project. Now how's that for a starter to your morning!
Of course, if this happens, it would be a
massive boost for the company, and of course for the stock. Here's the reasoning for coming to this conclusion:
On April 24th of this year, Nano put out the following news release titled
NANO ONE ADVANCES COMMERCIAL PLANS FOR LFP AND OTHER CATHODE MATERIALS.
I've copied the relevant sections of this news release, and then added some further highlighting to some specific points as they relate to Candian 2. While the highlighting draws attention to specific parts of the text, please DO take the time to read the full text here, as it is full of good information to consider.
------------------------------------------------------- Nano One is addressing the call for increased security of supply, environmental stewardship and responsible raw material sourcing. Its objective is to capture a meaningful portion of large, emerging CAM markets, starting in North America, then to expand in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, all looking for cleaner and more cost-competitive cathode production solutions.
Mr. Blondal added: "The cathode market opportunity is extraordinary, with production volumes projected to grow, in North America for instance, from thousands to over a million tonnes per year, within a decade. We are laying a solid foundation to address these opportunities and to bring increased value to our shareholders. It begins with a strategy that leverages our newly acquired facility in Candiac, Que., which is the only LFP production plant and most experienced operational team in North America. Candiac jump-starts the commercialization of the One-Pot process in 100-, 1,000- and 10,000-tonne steps and this will set the stage for rapid expansion to hundreds of thousands of tonnes."
LFP, NMC and LNMO pilot plans
To expedite commercial sampling, offtake and first revenues, Nano One's newly acquired Candiac facility in Quebec is being retrofitted with its new One-Pot reactors and technology, and will be commissioned initially at 200 tons per annum (tpa) in Q3 2023, ramping up to as much as 2,000 tpa.
"I was involved in the first commercial production of LFP, more than a decade ago, right here in Quebec," commented chief commercialization officer Denis Geoffroy, "and it is exciting to be at the cutting edge once again, with an experienced team, bringing a new generation of LFP and other CAMs to market. One-Pot simplifies production and I believe it will enable Nano One and our partners to produce the cleanest CAM while driving down costs and building the most localized and secure supply chains."
Nano One will launch LFP in North America, followed by Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, giving it access to hundreds of thousands of tons and exponential revenue growth, to power hundreds of gigawatt hours of battery storage and millions of electric vehicles. It begins with a first-of-its-kind, commercial-scale LFP production facility, using Nano One's proprietary One-Pot process that leverages its know-how, equipment, land, people and shareholder support.
Mr. Geoffroy added: "We are conducting trials in the existing Candiac plant, benefiting from idle reactors with LFP batches that are 100 times larger than we can do at our innovation centre in Burnaby, B.C. Results are encouraging, making this a major acceleration since we took ownership of the facility six months ago. This comes with valuable learnings for our engineering and operational teams that will help us hit the ground running as we bring the new One-Pot reactors on-line later this year."
Nickel- and manganese-based cathode materials play an equally important role in Nano One's growth strategy, and the company is applying its technologies and collaborating with multiple strategic partners to address the need for greater supply chain security, cost reductions and environmental protection. To this end, Nano One also has engineering work under way for a separate 100 tpa NMC and LNMO pilot facility. Having piloting capabilities for LFP, NMC and LNMO will enable Nano One to prototype, validate, engineer and pilot a new generation of CAM and accelerate the commercial adoption of its One-Pot and sulphate-free metal-direct-to-CAM (M2CAM) processes in pursuit of production, joint venture and licensing opportunities.
LFP commercial plans
Product from piloting will be sent to partners and potential customers for validation, qualification, offtake and possibly first revenues, and will also inform the design, construction and operation of Nano One's LFP commercial demo plant.
In parallel to the pilot activities, engineering is under way for a greenfield commercial demo plant, the purposes of which will determine (a) the optimal capacity for a single production line; (b) the maximum number of lines that can be constructed on the undeveloped land at the Candiac property; and (c) the unit of production and basis for much larger automotive-scale multiline LFP production facilities.
Nano One chief operating officer Alex Holmes said: "The pilot and the demo plant will be launch pads for evaluation, training, offtake, production, first revenues and rapid growth to meet the needs of our collaborators, partners and growing list of potential customers. To feed this growth, we are partnering with critical mineral and raw material providers to reduce waste, water, cost and energy intensity while strengthening domestic supply chains."
Nano One intends to build the commercial demo plant adjacent to the existing pilot facility, subject to engineering results and available utilities. Preliminary estimates indicate that a single line will have a capacity of approximately 10,000 tpa, representing a fivefold increase over the pilot facility. A more detailed engineering study is under way and will inform Nano One on capital costs, the optimal line size and maximum capacity on its undeveloped land. Nano One is planning to begin with a single production line and currently believes that it may be able to fit up to two additional lines as the LFP market grows and as local infrastructure can support it.
This plan could enable hundreds of millions in revenue during Nano One's initial years of commercial operations while also enabling demonstration of its technology to the market, potential licensors, joint ventures and investors, at a scale relevant to automotive OEM (original equipment manufacturer) and renewable energy storage interests.
The resulting production line will be the blueprint, or modular building block, to replicate in multiproduction line facilities, in the future, with capacities that could range from 50,000 to 100,000 tpa. Nano One's LFP pilot and commercial demo plant facilities will serve as a centre of excellence to train future plant operators, to facilitate continuous improvement, and to offer Nano One's customers, partners and licensees access to experienced implementation teams, engineering, procurement, construction and operation to derisk investments and ensure a secure and stable supply of LFP.
Mr. Holmes added: "The acquisition of Candiac last year accelerated our commercialization plans quite remarkably and opened the door to address the LFP market head on, using our One-Pot technology and deeply experienced operating team. Our value proposition to partners now goes far beyond a technology solution and will offer turnkey engineered production lines, experienced implementation teams, training for future plant operators and continuous improvement validated through a rigorous scaling program. We believe this approach will enable rapid large-scale expansions while reducing the capital at risk, and the lead times to production, and ultimately, it will improve the bottom line for our stakeholders."
In preparation for the commercial demo plant, Nano One will focus on:
- Supply chain security -- active discussions under way with key raw materials suppliers for commercial needs with a goal to source 100 per cent from within North America;
- Customer offtake -- active discussions under way for validation and customer qualification leading to offtake with small- and medium-volume LFP customers;
- Project finance -- advanced planning under way with public and private sector project finance providers complemented by future customer and strategic investor discussions;
- Permitting, operational readiness planning and implementation under way.
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So this was LAST APRIL. Fast forward now 5 months.
1) Candiac 1 is all but completed and fully ready to go.
2) Nano just put out an announcement last week that their chemistry works in the 2000tpa pre-existing reactors and that they are now sending offtake material to OEM's, which advances their progress by about a year ahead of their previous schedule (i.e., ready for Candiac 2)
3) Nano has done an excellent job by all accounts building a strong relationship with the Federal goverment. Additionally, they have shown that they can meet all planned milestones regarding existing government funding, showing the company as both effective and prudent. The Government will certainly like this. (sidenote: still looking for effective provincial involvement from the Quebec government. Personally, I think they should be fully involved in supporting Nano as well)
4) Federal Government involvement in funding across this new industry as a whole continues to ramp up, showing the Government is committed to solid growth and support in Canada.
5) Given the language of the above April news release, and in particular noting "Advanced Planning" for Candiac 2 with regard to financing from the private and public sector, the timing seems right for a substantial annoucement.
Is such an announcement now imminent? We won't know until we actually receive something, but I think there is enough there now to put forward this prediction here in this post. There are some Government announcements slated for the end of this month (the 28th?), so possibly something then.
On a completely different (but related) sidenote, and as I've mentioned before, I pay a lot of attention to the trades going through. There was a noteable change in the trading yesterday, with some buy orders that were definitely larger and more consistant than I've seen for a while now. We'll have to see if this continues, but the change is noted. Anticipation buying starting to come in? We'll see what comes. The stock imho continues to be a screaming buy at current levels. I doubt these bargain levels will last long.