RE:RE:Oil up, Oil stocks down: Consider a pairs trade How about this trade.
Short the Nasdaq and S&P? Buy t-bills?
I believe the S&P will trade between 3000-3600 when people begin to lose their jobs and we are in the middle of the recession. Jerome Powell reiterated his belief that we have to experience some softness in the labour market. Much to my surprise, he also said that a "soft landing" is not his baseline expectation. Very interesting remarks coming from him.
I'm not buying into the argument of higher rates for longer. The economy is not productive enough to support such a long term view and I think the yield curve normalizes with the short end of the bond curve coming down and NOT the long end going up.
My 2 cents