Final tally before the vote.......After taking into account all the "major" & more or less known players who can vote for/aginast this deal.......this is my latest, updated & final vote count beore Monday's deadline. Nothing has really changed from the previous tally, except the numbers may be more accurate. But the WILD CARD remains the same as it seems NO WORD has come out as where they are leaning towards.....
So....drumroll pleeeeassse......
FOR the deal..........
Riverstone Group - ~39%
Pipestone mgmt/Bod - ~5%
AGAINST the deal
GMT Group - ~19%
Bison Group - ~5%
Libra Group - ~1%
Retail holders (known) - ~0.05~
So as you can see, FOR has ~44% and AGAINST has ~26%. The FOR side needs another ~22% to pass the deal. Those AGAINST need another ~10% to kill it. As with all M&A, the acquiring side always have folks who are continuously accumulating shares to ensure the deal passes with NO problems, as we don't the exact number of shares they have secured so far, i've not included them here this time. But rest assured that number is "significant", as these folks have probably been accumulating since the process was started almost a year ago.
But that's NOT the most important figure here, and could be rendered inconsequential by one sole entity voting agianst the deal. And that's the Al Mehwar Group, who at last count held between 10% & 13%. If they vote no with 12%, as i've said many times on here, the deal is DOA and that's that. Also, as we don't know the EXACT % they own at this point in time, THAT matters also.
If Al Mehwar only has ~10%and they vote NO , flip a coin it's in Gods hands as it can go either way depending on how those small institutional holders like Libra & retail who actually interested & make an effort to vote on the deal. At ~11%, the deal COULD BE killed BUT it will be a nail biter right down to the last few shares and azor thin magins . In other words, it may not pass but i wouldn't bet the family farm it's a guarantee. At 12%, it's safe to say & to call it a day the deal is D-E-A-D.......
So as you can see, it does't matter how many votes the StrathCona/Waterous proxy guys accumulated (to a certain extent ofcourse!) over the pass year OR how many small insitutional/ retail votes are against it IF the third largerst holder is for. It's ALL in the hands of AL Mehwar and what % they own..........at this point.........
GLTA