Before moving on, I want to mention one customer that I don’t have visuals for, but that Eric thinks could be a near-term catalyst for the company.
Cal Nano recently PRed a longer-term contract with a leading green steel company. Up until now, Cal Nano has mostly been an R&D partner. While many large companies have toyed with some of these advanced material science methods through small projects, very few have implemented it in industry and installed these components into real products at scale.
Eric sees this changing in the near future and thinks that he can position Cal Nano as a toll manufacturer. This contract with the green steel company is their first big breakthrough on this front and has the potential to be a major tailwind for Cal Nano if the steel company is successful.
Competition
As of right now, Cal Nano has no direct competitors in North America. As outlined above, SPS in particular is a nascent technology that is only beginning to be used. Outside of national labs, who are focused on academic research, Cal Nano is the only commercial company servicing customers in North America with custom SPS and cryomilled components.
In Japan, there are companies with similar business models that have existed for decades, but they have never made the leap across the Pacific. There is also one company in Europe called Norimat that is attempting to do what Cal Nano is doing, only for European industries. Cal Nano considers them a close partner and the two have collaborated for many years.
When I asked Eric what their competitive advantages are, he said that he considers the network they’ve built throughout the industry over the last decade to be the company’s most valuable asset. They’ve partnered with many universities and National Laboratories over the years, and now the people they worked with have spread out to various companies and are interested in bringing the R&D work they did with Cal Nano into industry where they are now decision makers.
Another common way they connect with new customers is through the work they’ve done with National Laboratories and universities. Companies approach these labs asking about advanced material technologies and the labs refer them to Cal Nano.
There is also a lot of built-up expertise on their team, particularly in SPS. While the process might sound relatively simple, it’s challenging to take customer performance requirements and engineer a finished product. Simply achieving a solid component with no powder left takes a good deal of skill and knowledge. Then you have to know what materials to use, how to process them into a powder, how to run the SPS to achieve a specific set of goals, and often there are shaping or other secondary processing steps required to ship a final product.
While Cal Nano is the dominant player in a niche area right now, it’s probably unrealistic to assume they will maintain a monopoly if these advanced material processes do take off. With that said, Eric views Cal Nano as an opportunity to bring SPS to North America, even if they don’t take 100% market share. This is why they are also an exclusive sales and servicing partner with Fuji-SPS, a leading SPS manufacturer out of Japan.
Eric said that some companies, such as SpaceX, want to do everything in-house. And rather than try and force them to use Cal Nano by withholding information about the process, he’d rather sell them a machine and do some R&D work to help get them going. This gets their foot in the door and will likely lead to future work either with that company, or with future companies as employees move around. Eric thinks the industry will eventually be very large and wants Cal Nano to be a major contributor to the technology improving important products in our modern lives.
For every company that wants to buy an expensive machine, hire multiple specialized employees, and put in the time required to perfect a technology outside of their core competencies, there will be ten companies that want to replace a single component in their product with something more advanced and they will likely be perfectly willing to outsource manufacturing to Cal Nano.
I think it’s unlikely for a competing business to pop up in North America with an identical business model. If there was a funded startup that wanted to enter, they’d likely have to pick one product to manufacture, perfect it, and then start making it at scale and attempting to sell it. Even then, this type of business model doesn’t typically attract venture capital because it’s capital intensive and there is no existing market to attack, you have to create it. Without a vast network of connections and a strong reputation (like the one Cal Nano has), it’d be very difficult for a startup to land a contract with a large company pre-product.
Unit economics
One of the aspects of Cal Nano’s business model that I love is that on the one hand, they are making cutting-edge components to be installed on some of the most advanced technology the human race has ever created—nuclear fusion reactors, spaceships, semi-conductors, etc.—but at the same time, even if they make 60% gross margins, the cost of the component as a percentage of the overall end product will be tiny.
For most companies, I think it will be a no-brainer to buy components from Cal Nano rather than manufacture in-house because the incremental cost of switching from a traditionally-made component to an SPSed component in absolute terms will likely be small, and the fixed costs required to start an SPS facility in-house will likely not make economic sense.
Now let's drill down into the unit economics of the SPS and cryomilling machines.
An SPS machine costs around $1.5MM plus $40-50k of modifications and can conservatively generate $1MM/yr in revenue at 60% gross margins. I think potential revenue could actually be quite a bit higher, but it will depend on what exactly they end up manufacturing.
On the cryomilling side, a machine costs $250k plus $40-50k of modifications and can also conservatively generate $1MM/yr in revenue at 60% gross margins.
Cryo-milling economics are more favorable because the upfront fixed cost is so much lower, but there are fewer potential projects that are pure cryomilling.
Let’s focus on SPS first. Using conservative estimates, I think each machine doing $1MM/yr in revenue at 60% gross margin and 30% EBITDA margin is realistic. That’s $300k in EBITDA, which means the machine will pay for itself in five years, which would compound invested capital at ~15%.
A high-end bound for a machine would probably be in the $5MM/yr ballpark. If we take the midpoint between our conservative and high-end estimates, we get $2.5MM of revenue generating $750k EBITDA at our stated margins, which means each machine will pay for itself in two years and compound invested capital at ~42%.
Cryo-milling is even more attractive on a unit economics basis. Just $1MM in revenue generating $300k in EBITDA would pay for the machine in one year, or 100% return on invested capital.
Cal Nano currently has spare SPS capacity to do about double the revenue of what they are currently doing, so capital is not needed imminently to keep the R&D business growing. On the cryomilling side, they just purchased a used machine that will allow them to 3x their current capacity. One of the things I love about Eric’s management style is that when he sees a good deal (like the cryomilling machine) popup, he pounces and is planning ahead for two years from now rather than optimizing financials for this quarter. This is one of the many ways that he’s demonstrated his resourcefulness and long-term planning.
The numbers above are EBITDA, so it’s worth talking about the DA a bit. I asked Eric what the useful life of an SPS machine is and he said that SPS machines in general have been in production since the 60s and we still haven’t hit a point where machines are breaking down. They of course require repairs, but overall they are extremely durable and don’t have many moving parts that can break catastrophically. Cal Nano’s oldest machine is from 1998 and it still works fine.
So while they are required to depreciate these machines fully over 7-10 years on their balance sheet, it’s likely they will far outlive that.
Furthermore, since Cal Nano has exclusive sales and servicing rights to sell Fuji-SPS machines, they are the experts anyone in the US would call to fix their machine if it does fail. They’ve gotten very good at fixing the machines and costs for them to maintain would be significantly less than any competitor or potential customer bringing the technology in-house.
Challenges
While I think Cal Nano has a bright future, they are still a small company with material risks.
Cal Nano has $1.44MM in debt issued by Omni-lite, the company they were spun off from and share an office space with. The loan is callable and if they were to call it, Cal Nano would go bankrupt overnight. Cal Nano plans to start making $10,000 monthly principal payments (in January they did a one-time $120k principal payment), but given the size of their debt, this will barely scratch the surface and they will likely need to renegotiate or refinance elsewhere.
I believe the loan being called is unlikely because the two companies continue to have a good relationship. Omni-lite owns 18.9% of Cal Nano, so if they were to call the loan, they’d be incinerating more value in Cal Nano stock than they’d ever get back from a bankruptcy and liquidation. This is still something to keep an eye on, especially if Omni-lite starts selling shares. It’s also worth noting that Roger Dent is a director of both Cal Nano and Omni-lite and has material holdings in both.
The unfortunate thing is that this debt pre-dates Eric and was used mostly to keep the lights on during lean years when they used to go long stretches between contracts, it wasn’t even converted into a usable asset.
The other near-term challenge is that Cal Nano will need a larger SPS machine to make the switch from R&D partner to a commercial-scale toll manufacturer. I think it’s unlikely they will be able to do this without outside funding and that it will most likely involve a combination of sources which will likely include a dilutive capital raise.
After this next equipment purchase, I think they will likely be able to fund the company’s growth organically without further dilution. Eric expressed intent to minimize dilution in the long term, but did not rule out a short-term raise.
In the AGM packet I received a few days ago, there is a proposal to loan Eric $250k during the next equity raise and this resolution would expire one year after passage. The funds would be used “for the purchase of common shares,” and Eric would pay Cal Nano a fair market interest rate on the loan.
This signals a few things to me. First, Eric is extremely bullish on the company’s prospects and wants in as soon as possible. He doesn’t want options, he wants to own shares. His salary was $120k in 2022 and $165k in 2023, which is pretty modest given that he lives in LA. A $250k loan is substantial relative to his income.
Second, a dilutive financing is coming. This loan resolution expires one year after it’s passed. If I dig a little deeper and read between the lines, I think it’s most likely that the company will only raise if they need to for growth (ie new equipment), and the only reason they’d need new equipment is because they’ve landed their first toll manufacturing customer. It’s possible that they are close to landing their first big contract and afterwards they plan to raise to fund the expansion necessary to deliver.
If you’re the type of investor that will not tolerate any dilution, this company is probably not for you. There’s a chance that the price drops after they announce a contract and raise depending on how dilutive it is. The nice thing is that the money will likely be used to purchase an SPS machine, and those machines hold their value. So there will be dilution, but the cash should be converted into a fairly durable asset. I have personally chosen to buy now because I believe in Eric and what Cal Nano can do long term and the stock is too illiquid for me to take a reasonable position quickly after a major announcement.
On the product side, I think that corporate risk aversion is a near and medium-term risk. I have a close friend who works at a large defense contractor and I know that they are typically resistant to swapping in even something as simple as a new screw on a product they’ve been making for 50 years because nobody wants to be the person who fixed something that wasn’t broken, which led to a catastrophic failure on a billion dollar piece of equipment. In the long run, I think companies in all industries will have no choice but to keep up with technology or get left behind. For Cal Nano, it’s mostly a question of timing. Is Cal Nano at the right place at the right time, or are we still ten years too early?
Finally, while they’ve found success doing R&D work, they are on the brink of transitioning their entire business model to toll manufacturing. Anytime you change directions that much, there are risks that things won’t pan out as planned.
Conclusion
Cal Nano is a growing and profitable company with promising management and the ability to invest into a defensible business at high returns on invested capital. They’ve spent the last decade building up expertise in nascent advanced material technologies and growing their network of customers and partners. While they are a microscopic company by public market standards, they are already a trusted partner to many leading startups and Fortune 500 companies that produce some of the most advanced products in existence.
I’ve enjoyed my conversations with Eric and am constantly impressed by how much vision he has. In the short term, he’s laser-focused on landing the first toll manufacturing customer, hiring a CFO to take more non-technical work off his plate, and figuring out how to fund their growth. In the long term, he talked about how he envisions possibly opening a manufacturing plant in Texas where energy is cheaper and they’d be more centrally located to their customers. At dinner, we even pondered some of the other technologies Cal Nano could move into beyond SPS and cryomilling, but that’s a topic for further down the line.
If Cal Nano can successfully shift to toll manufacturing and get the ball rolling, I think they have the momentum to carry them forward for a long time and that this company could have a long and profitable growth runway.
Resources
If you want to learn more about Cal Nano’s technologies, check out the Materialism Podcast. Eric was a guest on episode 63 and they go over SPS. I’d recommend starting with episode 35 as they go into the history of SPS and give a more foundational background.
The Sintering Wikipedia page also does a good job of explaining how the process works.
Disclosure
I own shares of Cal Nano at the time of writing and may buy or sell shares at any time without notice or warning. This write-up contains my thoughts and opinions and is not investment advice. I may have made mistakes. Do your own due diligence and review my Legal Disclaimer.