RE:RE:RE:Didn't hear about this company until recentlyChincy1 wrote: Very basic back of the napkin math;
company has publicly stated that with current production, roughly 20,000 b/d, add in wassana getting back online and new drilling there offering some growth lets say they can get that to 5000 b/d, and then add in growth from Nong Yoa C, say 3000 b/d that gets us to a very doable 28,000 b/d for q1/q2 2024.
28,000 b/d at $95 brent is 970M USD
28,000 b/d with a reasonable $45 net back is 459M USD fcf
459M/ 102M shares out is $4.5/share USD pre tax FCF OR $6/share pre tax FCF
Have I got it right? if so, you tell me what that should be valued at...
There is nomvisibility into decline rates in this end of life play.
We do know they opcost $350M yr just to maintain the dream of 25K bbl day and close to $275K for current 20k bbl day, plus overhead $100M +/- yr for luxury expat Singapore packages and web of opaque offshore companies with supporting professional services.
Thats 25% overhead when it should be 7% max haha...
Dont forget about the $100M yr they need to save for decommissioning