RE:RE:RE:Didn't hear about this company until recentlyFCF is after tax and CFO is before tax
From Q2 report, I'm seeing CFO at 40% of revenue at US$80 a barrel and FCF at approx. 50% of CFO
At US$95 a barrel, the extra $15 is pure CFO which is another US$7.50 FCF a barrel... let's make that US$8 as CFO is actually a bit more than 50% and Brent is a bit higher, not to mention that VLE gets a couple bucks premium to market price.
That said, FCF was approximately .4 x.5 x 80 = US$16 a barrel based on Q2. Add 8 and we have US$24 FCF... let's make that US$25 to simplify the math.
So every 1000 bbl a day is approx. US$25,000 a day based on current operations not taking into account additional benefits such as tax losses etc..
Adding another 5000 barrels a day can mean another US$125,000 a day or about US$11 million a quarter... another US$44 million more annual FCF.or about 43 cents more FCF a share, roughly 9 cents per 1000 bopd. Another thousand barrels and we're pushing 50 cents more FCF a share.
At Q2 current operations of 22,000 bopd, FCF would be about US$2 a share based on current Brent price, 9 cents FCF per 1000.
Another 6000 bopd easily makes it US$2.50 FCF a share or about CA$3.35 FCF a share.
I think CA$3 FCF a share is fair guesstimate in my opinion.