RE:For you Macro Thinkers!Wow thats an earful.
Old Chinese proverb...with crisis comes opportunity.
As we see so shall we proceed.....my proverb.
The eternal pessimist will surely miss out.
Old Greek proverb....he who chases after a lot often looses the little he already has.
It's a very complex world. Only the most critical thinkers and the most open minded will get it right.
Covid was a good example. I was following it from day one in China. Studied opinions from infectious diseases experts etc. I bought some VIX. But stupid me I sold it after a double. Didn't really understand the impact it could have. I could have made 15 times my money in a couple of weeks.
But at least I did something. Other "great" investors like Jeff Gindlach did nothing. But Bill Ackman put a lot of thought into it...saw it coming and made over a billion dollars....and I remember a lot of people hated him for it. I thought it was a great move. I respect anyone that succeeds.
Having a preconceived idea of what's coming is a narrow minded view. Like they say no one is in greater danger than he who truly believes something to be true when it's not.
George Soros made his fortune by betting big on things he truly believed to be true. But to do that one must REALLY know what they're doing.
I get a lot of ideas listening to speeches from the old timers, not young fellas. People like Peter Lynch, Howard Mark's, Stan Drukenmeller, etc. Wisdom only comes with age and as they say there is nothing new under the sun