(Under)ValuationWe can all generally agree on the undervaluation. In terms of the FCF multiple to use, maybe less agreeance.
When it comes to everybody's calculations, many people are assuming linear netbacks, not factoring royalties, not factoring tax, assuming 25K+ bpd constantly, assuming Brent averages $90,95 in 2024, some even assuming a premium to Brent. I get this is largely "back of the envelope maths", but it makes a significant difference in the $M of FCF.
Base case is roughly $2USD FCF for 2024, I think we can reasonably agree. I think after Q2 we can trust mgmt to run the assets. The question is, what do people want the cash to be used for in terms of growth? If you want more FCF/higher valuation, investments must be made. I don't see return to shareholders being a top priority at the moment, but the more FCF they generate, the more the potential return in the future.