RE:(Under)ValuationSlide 11 in Q2 report shows $70 million CFO and $37 million FCF. The CFO is after deducting royalties and OPEX. The FCF is what's left over after taxes for CAPEX and the bank.
Both the Q2 and the latest presentation show $70 million and $35 per bbl CFO in the Appendix.
All figures are in US$
FCF is basically 50% of CFO (37/70) ... a bit more actually, but then this is just estimating numbers to get an idea of the current disposition and future potential.
Take half the $35 and add half of $15 for the increase in Brent since the Q2 report, which shows an average of $80 per bbl.
Use whatever production number you're comfortable with and you'll get your estimated FCF.
Bottom line is there is plenty of cash and plenty more coming. The fields keep on extending and extending plus there is a whole new ball game going on with Wassana.
Cash is king and FCF is what matters. This ship will keep on adding cash in the bank, at what rate is difficult to tell as numbers keep changing. I see a buck a share pure net earnings on the horizon after all taxes and expenses including CAPEX. To me that's worth $10 a share valuation.
For the near term I'm sure we'll see $6 or $7 by year end if not sooner.