RE:RE:RE:RE:Looks like I was making a similar observation on the ARX board that the NG builds in the EIA report do not support the rise in NA NG pricing recently and I was wondering why?
Your explanation of decreasing rig counts is the best reason for a forward looking market I have heard.
Even decreasing oil rig counts should produce less associated NG making average NG storage builds appear less than adequate with winter approaching.
As for winter I have seen reports of a harsh winter for Europe after December taxing their storage levels and increasing LNG shipments which should raise NG pricing pretty much globally now.
GLTY and all
PabloLafortune wrote: Just to update my earlier narrative on natural gas, it was down today and now its right back up. This has been going on for a few days (finally). The story it seems is that production is now barely up over last year (0.5 to 1% vs 2% a couple months ago and even higher before that).
Initially it was pipeline maintenance aka "transitory" but now the question is, is it transitory or not. We know that much fewer new natgas wells are being added to production compared to a year ago. Now there are whispers of wells being shut in (none of this is evidence as I'm just repeating what someone posted on twitter who is probably repeating what someone else is saying, and so on...).
Because if production is flat to declinining, Canadian imports are down, Mexico exports are up, LNG is up and demand naturally is up, then storage becomes irrelevant because its like having cash in the bank but spending way more than you have coming in - sooner or later, the bough is going to break. (Only weather is the great unknown of course).
It wouldn't surprise me (purely amateur opinion, work of fiction really) if the well shut in story was partially true. If you're a natgas producer, unless you're fully hedged, you're looking at Q4 as basically a write off - you got $2.70ish in October, $2.95 in November and $3.35 in December for an average below $3.00. Management must manage - they can't control pricing but surely they can stop doing the things that lose money.
My conclusion: the natgas price fireworks are about to start, weather permitting. IMO, prices are going to firm up significantly in the next 2 months. Please draw your own conclusions, do not rely on my amateur narrative. GLTA.