RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Looks like Pablo, I disagree with much of your long post.
Storage levels are NEVER irrelevant. In fact, they drive the nat gas futures prices. After the mild winter, projections for the injection end of season storage were in the 4,000 bcf ballpark, based on the average 5 year injections. Due to the hot summer, power demand increased, and the injections for August and September were below average. End of season storage is now forecast to be approx 3,800 bcf, which is still significantly above the 5 year average (3,600 bcf). October additions are expected to be close to the 5 year average.
Rig activity correlates to production with a very long lag. Far more important is the frac spread count, which bottomed during August and is now headed higher.
Nat gas production is higher year over year and is unlikely to decline much from current levels.
The elephant in the room is the associated gas production from the Permian Basin. With high oil prices, Permian production continues to increase. Along with the oil comes nat gas. And every month, the percentage of gas production increases.Year to date, Permian gas production has increased by 2.5 bcf per day.
We need a cold winter to maintain the winter futures prices above usd $3 per mcf.