Quite a changeIt's funny how things change so quickly.
The following summarizes my take on what's happened since 2022 in a nutshell:
1. Management said/implied that Papua PNG should be happening soon and they are ready, excited, and looking forward to it with the FID expected late 2023/early 2024.
2. They sold the Canadian business (which was profitable) to focus on PNG since a lot will be happening there and that's the company's specialty where they have a distinct advantage.
3. They propose to privatize the business because of "different synergies" between the remaining Canadian business and PNG, just prior to the next PNG bull cycle and expected FID. At that time, they suggest a "pro-rata" spinoff.
4. What appears to be concurrent with #3, they mention a Return of Capital of what they received from the Canadian Well Business sale because they're "overcapitalized".
5. Conclude that the "pro-rata" share distribution doesn't make much sense since they can just charge the shareholders more money for what they already own 100% of. Of course they need new investment money since they're now "undercapitalized" due to their "overcapitalized" RoC distribution.
6. They receive a lot of negative shareholder feedback on the privatization idea since most shareholders realize it's ridiculous on so many levels and, frankly, a self-serving endeavour.
7. They issue a PR paraphrazed that "Investors shouldn't expect too much from PNG as it appears that our rigs likely won't be needed anytime soon, because the Tier-1 players decided to build some roads a few weeks back of which which we had no idea."
8. Share price drops due to #7.
9. ?
In all of that time, no shareholder value has been unlocked. At this juncture, giving these "guys" - a generous euphemism btw - the benefit of the doubt is a very difficult supposition.