RE:RE:DARK CLOUDS Are Moving Rapidly Over The WORLD Economy Hi Ztransforms, let's discuss why you think the recession will be worse than the GFC. I'm in the recession camp but I'm not confident to say just how deep it will be. I believe Canada is going to get it really hard this time around and it will be far worse than US.
I'll play devils advocate here.
mortgage interest costs as percentage of disposable personal income are at historical lows in the US. Most people refinanced when we had zirp and these homeowners can be on a 30 year mortgage. Also, corporations locked in rates for much longer duration too. The pain will be felt as we begin to roll over this financing which is one of the reasons why Canada is in bad shape with higher refinancing turnover. I believe this time around Canada gets hit harder than the US.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP.
(Includes principal and interest on mortgage payments)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP. (Includes credit card debt as well as mortgage debt)
Canada's debt service ratio to disposable income is significantly higher than the US (14.9% compared to 9.82%) and above levels during the GFC which peaked at ~ 13.1% in Q4 2007.
https://globalnews.ca/news/9767692/statistics-canada-debt-disposable-income/amp/