RE:Valuation/ Ray BlancoI'd guess $15-20B at the end of Ph2 if the data shows significant improvement in activity and no ARIA-E. I think it could approach $2B with good Phase 1b readouts showing no ARIA plus good biomarker data. At that point, a buyout would be likely, imo.
I think the lack of ARIA-E could be a game changer that could blow away the competition. Given the choice between one drug that causes brain bleeds 15% of the time, halting its use and perhaps worse, and another drug with similar (or better) activity with no brain bleed risk, I feel like the market tips completely toward the lower risk drug.
I personally think PMN should have gone up bigtime as soon as Acumen results showed occurrence of ARIA-E. I think we saw that for just a few days after the poster was presented at AIAC. Obviously, some people there connected the dots and bought a lot of shares without regard to price. It was short lived because most investors don't understand the finer details of the PMN poster... especially the immunohistochemistry data which correlates with the ARIA E risk.
Hell, just for talking about that stuff here with people who know the company well, I've been accused of being Dr. Goldstein, which still makes me chuckle.