RE:Time to buy?nice post Dog. too bad only a sentence or two show up unless you click on it.
I was looking to raise a bit of cash from pretty much everything I own, procrastinated two weeks and missed a fantastic buying opportunity.
I don't post a lot of negative items, I typically just grit my teeth, sell and move on. So it is easy to label me a pumper - but I really like BNE. The value proposition is there. Everything has been right sized - debt, drilling, types of debt and there is a nice smattering of land to give them optionality with different play types.
Their land position is good but ideally they would add a few more top drilling locations in the Cardium. Entrada would work good enough for 2-4 years or they could look a little higher up the food chain. Maybe they could redo some of the geology on their existing acreage to see what else may be worth looking at in their back yard.
I agree with the boss that we need a little more size to be relevant in this market.
I like the Montney optionality - they can drill it, produce it s the future growth driver, partially capitalize and sell it - all could be winning strategies.
I would like a little more liquidity sure but still think buybacks are an option. It is working like a charm on Tenaz which is far smaller and much more illiquid.
I also wonder about the Birchill Canada connections for our CEO. Like Headwater, the Birchill group was assembling assets and selling out to other companies. The difference is that the Birchill iterations were all private companies owned by hedge funds. He sold the last assets to Orlen who have been coming up with some interesting pools on the acreage. Tri Ooil was also a bit of an innovator. Maybe we have something else internally we can look at?
Tenaz did find an enormous pool right in Calmar/Leduc that was missed by a thousand or so wells, so there is lots of potential nearby.