RE:War Breaking out in ME ............ Oil to $100+ on Monday $100 - $125?
You may be right, but I hope not.
$80 - $85 and everybody wins, producers / consumers etc.
Lots of moving pieces to analyze:
Saudi Arabia is the swing producer and was starting to hold hands with Israel.
Iran obviously did not want that relationship to bloom.
From the outside looking in though, it would seem Iran's best interests would be to protect oil shipping lanes. Iran a vested interest in a stable global economy that consumes copius amouts of oil/gas. I dont think Iran or Saudi Arabia really wants oil prices to go parabolic. We all know that is not sustainable???
My best guess: Iran is looking to bog down Israel in Gaza, much the same as the U.S. armed Ukraine to bog down Russia. Assuming Israel starts pounding civilians in GAZA, Saudi Arabia will sort of back a way from the budding relationship with Israel. Proficient chess move by Iran, albeit risky.
I rather suspect Hamas etc. have dug in fairly well in GAZA, time will tell, hopefully Israel has this gamed out better than Nukester, cause I dont see anybody winning this time around.
With every Tom, Richard, and Harry oil investor mapping out their Monday morning trades, maybe I will go contrarian and buy some Suncor Puts Monday? Maybe sell some of my Suncor if it rallies ?
Time will tell,
Nukester