Recent MRTX take over offer $5+ billion Fair question, how does Onc compare to MRTX?
I use Onc web site as my reference point. As well as the details in various analyst reports.
So....!
Fair evaluation, also from MRTX web site.
I will ignore the screaming investors who paid more/ share than present offer on the table.
In that perspective, the deal is not final & additional bidders have cropped up.
so?
MRTX , has two phase 3 drugs, well in progress.
including one approved by FDA under fast track approval.
ONC, has one product. With two almost phase 3 ready.
in that view alone. Regardless of on- going share price.& potential final market of the products.
I'd say the upper limit of an Onc buyout would be $2.5 billion.
( argue either upside or down, just my opinion).
Pela, assuming they get accelerated approval, out of the PanCan results. And/ or exceptional results out of Goblet & the updated pancreatic numbers... they become (/potential), worth much more.
As of today, they have HUGE potential. Yet not as far along as is MRTX.
MRTX is an example. Pharma will pay $ Billions for a marketable product.
MTRX did already have two in place licensing " deals"
generally speaking from a B.D. Point of view MRTX , much more established.
Side note. All of MRTX products have medium to high side effects & toxicities.
Pela has minimal to zero.
Moving the lens further back.
I would love to be able to say ONC should be bought out for many billions.
And to see that happen next few weeks.
Seeing the pattern over & over. ( I agree not all), most buy outs are prefaced with strong partnerships.
Onc needs to get to thst phase first.
A business development deal with Roche going into phase 3, will certainly move the SP well into the analysts ranges of ($5- $15) ps.
last mid point being $6.85 ( usd).
From there & depending on the intensity of the panc results at ESMO, will determine the future opportunities.
keep in mind, the PanCan people have the ear if FDA & could easily move Pela into accelerated approval.
THEN , Onc has marketable product value.
right now they have great phase 2 data & fantastic potential.
Lowest Buyout?
One billion $ was stated years ago. They have moved much further ahead since then.
I think under present circumstances a $ billion buyout, would please most.
That being well north of $14/ ps CDN.
partership first.
happy thanksgiving